Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are pleasantly surprised to see incoming Democratic Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam back away from pushing Medicaid expansion, much to the consternation of liberals. They also shudder as a new generic poll of voters suggests Republicans are in for a very rough 2018, as Democrats lead big among women and young people and even hold slight edges among men and senior citizens. And Jim sounds off on actor Matt Damon’s insistence that he never knew about any of Harvey Weinstein’s alleged sexual assaults and harassment.
Republicans
Closer to a Tax Cut, Disney to Gobble Up Fox, Strzok’s ‘Insurance Policy’
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are cautiously optimistic that Republicans may soon pass a tax cut and while the proposal is not perfect, it moves in the right direction on a number of fronts. They also react to Disney becoming an even more mammoth presence in entertainment with the news it is paying over $52 billion to buy most assets of Fox. And they discuss the latest hit to the credibility of the Russia investigation, as a recently fired Mueller deputy referred to pursuing an “insurance policy” just in case Trump won the election.
Black Friday Political Gifts
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are in the Christmas spirit as they push aside the Thanksgiving leftovers to go shopping for timely, helpful gifts for various political figures. They generously announce what beautifully wrapped presents they have for President Trump, Chief of Staff John Kelly, various members of Congress and others.
GOP Tax Bill: Several Good Parts But Needs to be Improved
The House tax reform bill is now out of committee and headed for a vote on the House floor, and a leading advocate for small businesses says there is a lot to like in this legislation for businesses and individuals but she says there is definitely room for improvement.
Karen Kerrigan is president of the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council and an influential voice on tax and regulatory policy impacting small businesses. Just last week, she sat to the left of President Trump at a White House meeting on tax reform.
Kerrigan says a number of key provisions are very good, especially dropping the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent.
“It’s a really solid bill in terms of lowering rates, making those lower rates permanent, advancing simplicity for small businesses. That was very important, both on the business side and on the individual side,” said Kerrigan.
“We think those lower rates are going to be very helpful to allow them to reinvest more of their capital, more of their profits into their business at the end of the year,” she added.
And tax rates are not the only component that excites Kerrigan.
“If you do have these immediate cuts on the business side and also the expensing piece – you can’t forget about that – full expensing or expanded Section 179 expensing. That’s really going to trigger a lot more investment and a lot more confidence. Then you’re going to see higher growth in the economy as well,” said Kerrigan.
While corporations would see their tax rate plummet more than 40 percent, businesses other than corporations may face a murkier future. While dropping small business taxes to 25 percent, the GOP bill also keeps the top individual rate – through which many small businesses files with the IRS – unchanged at 39.6 percent for those making over a million dollars per year.
So will those businesses, known as pass-throughs, get relief?
“It really depends,” said Kerrigan, who says those making less than a million per year ought to benefit greatly from lower business taxes and lower individual rates. But that relief will not be happening for everyone.
“As it stands, there is a complicated formula, the 70/30 formula, that basically says from a pass-through perspective that 70 percent will get taxed from a wage perspective, which is the individual rate which may be higher for some small business owners. Thirty percent would get that lower rate,” said Kerrigan.
“What we’re trying to do is improve that pass-through rate. So maybe there’s better parity, perhaps 50/50, perhaps 40/60.
“The key right now is allowing more small businesses, particularly those that are in the upper income bracket, to get that 25 percent rate. We think those are resolvable and hopefully we’re going to get to a point where many small businesses are going to benefit from the lower rate,” said Kerrigan.
A major tactical consideration for lawmakers is how to craft the bill so senators can pass it with a simple majority. Senate rules only allow that to happen if the tax bill does not create additional deficits.
The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, says the House GOP plan would add $1.7 trillion of deficits over the next decade.
Kerrigan pushes back on the CBO in two ways. First, she points out the CBO’s refusal to factor in economic growth in projecting deficits, a policy known as static scoring versus the dynamic scoring that Kerrigan and others believe is more accurate.
“They leave out the reality in terms of dynamic scoring and the impact that incentives and reduction and putting more money back into the private economy has on growth and people’s behavior and business behavior and that drives growth,” said Kerrigan.
Second, Kerrigan says the CBO has a lousy track record with its projections.
“You’ve got to remember the CBO has been notoriously wrong on a whole range of things over the past 5-10 years. If you look at their predictions on Obamacare, how many people would be insured under Obamacare, really wrong on that. The cost of coverage on Obamacare? They’ve been dramatically wrong on that as well,” said Kerrigan.
As the debate heads to the full House floor and begins separately in the Senate, Kerrigan is confident that Republicans are largely headed in the right direction, but she still wants to see it get better.
“We are working on a bunch of issues so that small businesses will be able to keep the value of that lower rate and get that 25 percent rate. It’s a process and we’re at the table and we’re trying to improve this bill as much as possible so that it will have the best effects for small business and for the economy as well,” said Kerrigan.
GOP’s Tax Reform Blunders, TSA Fails Test Again, USA Today’s Chainsaw Bayonet
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America blast congressional Republicans over their embrace of scrapping the adoption tax credit and for considering an end to the property tax deduction. They also slam the TSA for failing miserably yet again in the latest test designed to see if our blue-shirted friends can actually stop guns, knives and bombs from getting through checkpoints. And they get a kick out of USA Today suggesting you could add a chainsaw bayonet to an AR-15 rifle.
Huge Dem Wins Due to GOP Inaction in D.C.
Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli says Democrats there turned out in droves to register their animosity towards President Trump and he says Republicans didn’t see the same passion from their voters because of failure after failure from the GOP in Washington.
On Tuesday, Democrat Ralph Northam coasted to an easy nine-point win over Republican Ed Gillespie. Democrats also won the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general and are on the brink of a stunning capture of the majority in the House of Delegates, where Republicans had enjoyed a 66-34 margin.
Pundits around the nation are offering endless analyses for the results, but Cuccinelli – the man who led the GOP ticket as the party’s nominee for governor four years ago – says the dominant performance from Democrats really boils down to one party’s base being fired up and the other one discouraged.
“On the Democrat side, it is correct to say that Trump motivated their most left-wing voters,” said Cuccinelli, who says exit polls show voters who backed Bernie Sanders in 2016 were far more energized than those who sided with Hillary Clinton.
“If you look at Hillary Clinton’s top 50 precincts in 2016, the voter turnout there only went up about one percent from the last election. If you look at Bernie Sanders’ top 50 precincts, the voter turnout exploded almost 20 percent,” said Cuccinelli.
He says that kind of enthusiasm was only evident on one side of the aisle on Tuesday.
“You’re never going to keep the left from being upset about Donald Trump and the Republicans. They’re going to come, right? So, the way to deal with it is to turn yours out. And unless you can deliver victories for them when you have both houses (of Congress) and the presidency, they will wonder what’s the point. That’s what happened yesterday,” said Cuccinelli.
Despite no members of Congress being on the ballot in Virginia on Tuesday, Cuccinelli firmly believes unfulfilled promises in Washington depressed the GOP turnout.
“Republicans are demoralized and dispirited at the complete failure of Republicans to keep their promises in Washington. As far as ordinary Republican voters can remember, they haven’t delivered on anything,” said Cuccinelli.
He says the most glaring example is the inability to repeal Obamacare, but he’s unimpressed with the rest of the track record as well.
“You’re hearing what amounts to a muddling debate over the tax bill. Yes, Neil Gorsuch is on the Supreme Court, and I hate to say this, but that was a long time ago,” said Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli does not believe Tuesday’s results guarantee another political tsunami in the 2018 midterm elections, but he says it will happen if Republicans don’t put some legislative wins on the board.
“Are we going to be in a position, like we were in Virginia, of unilateral disarmament. And by that I mean where we have nothing to motivate our side
“They have something to motivate their side and it isn’t going away. Unfortunately for America, what this is going to lead Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to do is simply be more obstructionist because lack of accomplishment is the Republicans’ Achilles heel,” said Cuccinelli.
He says the solution for that is simple.
“Pass Obamacare repeal, not a watered-down version but the real deal. Pass a real tax cut bill, not some mealy-mouthed thing there’s no reason to get excited about. They can fix this and one result of this will be to put a lot more pressure on congressional Republicans to perform,” said Cuccinelli.
Many of the House of Delegates seats won by Democratic challengers came in Northern Virginia, just outside of Washington. And Democrats did not win those races with moderates but with very liberal candidates.
“In Northern Virginia, there was a transgender, (and also) a self-declared socialist. These are wild-eyed radical lefties. Antifa is very happy with the outcome with some of these people,” said Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli doesn’t think Virginia voters embraced liberal politics in voting our their delegates. He says the liberal candidates just rode the wave.
“People in those districts weren’t electing a socialist because somehow the city of Manassas in Prince William County suddenly turned socialist. Those were simply the down ballot candidates at a time that the anger wave on the left carried them over the finish line,” said Cuccinelli.
He says Republican incumbents were done in by an unenthusiastic base that once again points to a lack of accomplishments in Washington this year.
“Good candidates down ballot were not in a position to resist the environmental wave that they were in: the negative one from the Democrats and then the lack of a wave of momentum coming from Republican accomplishment.
“Imagine how this would be different if five weeks ago Obamacare had been repealed instead of having some watered-down, mealy-mouthed go down anyway. Would Ed Gillespie have made up a nine and a half point difference? No, but down ballot would your delegate have lost like that? Probably not. Would mine? Probably not,” said Cuccinelli.
However, Cuccinelli says Republicans do face a bigger and bigger problem that has nothing to do with this year’s political dynamics – the influx of big-government liberals into Northern Virginia.
“The astonishing growth of the federal government over the past two decades has led to a massive importation of pro-government voters into Northern Virginia. Somebody’s got to run that growing leviathan, right?
“They haven’t moved to Maryland for the past 35 years. They moved to Virginia because the taxes are lower and quality of life is higher. But they vote like where they come from: New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts,” said Cuccinelli.
Cuccinelli blames both parties for the explosive growth in the federal government and says that tells the story of Democrats winning elections in Virginia far more than demographic shifts.
“What it really is is the growth of the swamp. Northern Virginia is home of the swamp. It’s where government lives is in Virginia. That has been killing us for a long time,” said Cuccinelli.
Tax Cut Bill Revealed, Trump’s Execution Tweets, Northam’s Epic Flip-Flop
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America largely cheer the House Republican tax plan, which cuts business and individual tax rates, kills the death tax and simplifies the system. They also sigh as President Trump tweets out his desire to see this week’s Manhattan terrorist face capital punishment, a public statement many Americans agree with but could complicate federal prosecution of the murderer. And they highlight the latest development in Virginia Democrat Ralph Northam’s no good, very bad week, as the candidate for governor flip-flops and suddenly supports banning sanctuary cities in Virginia.
Post Condemns Racist Ad, Terrorist Strikes NYC, GOP Delay Tax Bill
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud the Washington Post, not only for condemning the Latino Victory Fund ad that depicts Republican voters in Virginia as racists that want to run over minority kids but also slamming Democratic nominee Ralph Northam – whom the Post has endorsed – for a weak response to the ad. They also grieve for the victims of Tuesday’s terrorist attack in Manhattan and get frustrated as the media immediately tried to rule out Islamic terrorism and then insist it’s not a time for politics once they find out it was related to radical Islam. And they groan as congressional Republicans are forced to postpone the release of their tax reform bill because of ongoing disagreements within the party.
‘Holy Cow, We’ve Lost Our Culture’
Western civilization is thoroughly battered in Europe and America is on course for the same fate unless unless it once again embraces the ideas that made us strong and resists the tide of progressive momentum that seeks to destroy them, according to Sovereign Nations founder and editor-in-chief Michael O’Fallon.
Sovereign Nations is hosting a three-day conference in the nation’s capital next week designed to highlight the threats to the founding principles and how to thwart them. The conference will be held at the Trump International Hotel from Oct. 30-Nov. 1.
O’Fallon says he started Sovereign Nations as he watched America turn against the very things that made it strong.
“I imagine most [people] have noticed that there are things around them, especially in the last 8-10 years, that just don’t make sense. What was once heresy is now law and what was once law is now heresy.
“When we take a look at things that were accepted in the United States, the things that held us together, the glue that really kept our civilization together, those things are now being turned and looked at as if they are things and signs of oppression,” said O’Fallon.
And what are some of those things?
“The way we raise our children, the basis of America in self-government in the family, those things are now looked upon as being controlling, oppressive, not the way that people can truly have freedom, things that need to be thought through and possibly done away with. So everything that really keeps our society together as we know it is quickly being extinguished,” said O’Fallon.
O’Fallon says this is all a result of a carefully planned onslaught from the intellectual left.
“That cause of things we believe to be rooted in what is known as progressivism that is backed by open society foundations. More commonly known is the name of George Soros, which keeps coming up again and again. Certainly, he would be at the source of that,” said O’Fallon.
But how? How can someone like Soros and his allies really implement so much change?
O’Fallon says the first powerful took is what Soros calls the theory of reflexivity.
“It’s creating an atmosphere of transmission and acceptance of either true or false statements in order to fulfill a manipulative function,” said O’Fallon, who says that tactic morphs into what are known as “fertile fallacies.”
“We know a fallacy is something that’s not true, but it’s fertile in that maybe it’s not true but it’s got legs. It’s a great story. It’s going to go someplace,” said O’Fallon.
He says the cumulative impact of this strategy on multiple economic, cultural, and international fronts, is aimed towards a the ultimate goal of undermining the philosophical foundations of the United States.
“The target, in and of itself, is to destroy anything that makes us a sovereign nation with the ability to have self-governance,” said O’Fallon. “The citizens of this country are the ones that determine what this country does by making sure that we are within the frames of the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence.”
O’Fallon says the current attempts to blur the lines on citizenship by allowing non-citizens to vote and being lax on the enforcement of immigration laws is a direct attack on the right of citizens to rule, and he says killing that nation is the greatest tool the progressives have.
“All of these things are tools to break down and mold this world in a way that they would desire it – and when I say ‘the’y there’s a big ‘they’ there – in a way to not have us to be able to say,’That’s unconstitutional. That needs to go to the Supreme Court.’ We need to make sure that we look at things as the U.S. as apart from the rest of the world,” said O’Fallon.
He says America needs to wake up fast because it may already be too late for Europe.
“The same thing is happening in Europe. People are just waking up to the fact that, holy cow, we’ve lost our culture. And that, sadly, is happening here as well,” said O’Fallon.
O’Fallon blames “progressive” Republicans and Democrats for trying to stop President Trump from strengthening American sovereignty . He says the GOP is split between defenders of the Constitution and lawmakers behind the Gang of Eight immigration plan and other “globalist” initiatives.
He has even harsher words for the Democrats, whom O’Fallon believes need a new party name.
“They just need to come straight out and say, ‘We are globalist progressives at this point. What people joined 30, 40, 50 years ago with the Democrat Party, it doesn’t even resemble it at this point,” said O’Fallon.
“They have become a party that is wanting to quickly take us out of our sovereignty and put us into a situation where we could have something that’s very much like a global EU very soon.
“They are the party of eugenics. They are the party of attacking our sovereignty. They are the party that is always looking to obstruct,” said O’Fallon.
Trump Decertifies Iran Deal, Health of GOP Senators, Media’s Giant Blind Spot
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome President Trump’s refusal to certify that Iran is honoring its part of the 2015 nuclear deal but wonder whether the deal will eventually be scrapped or be allowed to stick around. They also approach the delicate issue of aging Republicans missing considerable time in the U.S. Senate and when the right time is to decide another term is not a good idea. And they shake their heads as Chuck Todd of MSNBC rightly castigates the rise of activism cloaked as journalism but cannot see or admit that’s what his employer does on a daily basis.