Archives for December 2014

The 2014 midterm elections were largely a referendum on President Obama and Republicans should expect him to push more unilateral action over the next two years to avoid getting blocked by a GOP Congress, according to University of Virginia Political Science Professor Larry Sabato.

Sabato directs the school’s Center for Politics and “Sabato’s Crystal Ball”, which very accurately predicted the Republican gains in the House and Senate.

By the time all races were decided, Republicans had picked up nine Senate seats to set up a 54-46 GOP majority come January.  The GOP also added 15 House seats and will soon hold a 247-188 majority in that chamber.  So why did Republicans have such a good year?  Sabato says to look no further than the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

“Midterm elections, inevitably, are a reflection of the popularity or unpopularity of the White House.  Remember, it’s all about turnout.  You always have a low turnout with midterm elections, so you always ask which side is more energized.  Well, clearly Republicans were. They were angry at the White House.  They had a long list of grievances after six years,” said Sabato, who says Democrats didn’t turn out their vote for a predictable reason.

“Democrats were not excited anymore.  The bloom is off the rose.  That usually happens in the sixth year.  It doesn’t always happen, but it usually happens because by then the partisans of the guy in the White House realize that nirvana will not be occurring.  You’re not going to have all of those promises fulfilled that were made in the original election,” said Sabato.

As a result of the GOP controlling both sides of Capitol Hill, Sabato says Republicans should brace themselves for Obama’s attempts to change policy unilaterally as he did on immigration in November.

“Yes, this will be an interesting two years.  I think there will be a fair number of executive actions, executive orders.  There’ll be all kinds of things that he will do independently because he knows he’s not going to be able to give anything substantial through Congress,” said Sabato.

While debates continue over the constitutionality of such moves, further executive action by Obama is likely to come on issues that will please the liberal base of the Democratic Party but infuriate Republicans and many independents.  That sets up a curious situation for the 2016 Democratic nominee, who most expect to be Hillary Clinton.  Sabato says Clinton will try to run on her husband’s record from two decades ago but avoiding Obama’s unpopularity will be virtually impossible.

“The nominee of the incumbent president’s party has to bear witness for the incumbent president’s actions.  If the incumbent president is very unpopular at election time, it’s awfully difficult to win that third term,” said Sabato.

For the next two years, Sabato expects little more than gridlock and he says the issues most likely to spark fierce battles are fairly predictable.

“Immigration is one, clearly.  Republicans will try to defund some of what President Obama had in his executive order.  Obviously, the Congress is going to try and trim back Obamacare.  They realize a full repeal would just be vetoed and they don’t have enough votes in either house to override a presidential veto,” said Sabato, who believes progress might be made in repealing specific Obamacare provisions, such as the medical device tax.

In addition to battles with Obama and congressional Democrats, GOP leaders may also find themselves at odds with members of their own party and grassroots activists expecting bold conservative action.  Sabato says this will be a delicate dance  for incoming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who wants to keep the conference together and point to bills passed into law.

“The solution is to find a certain number of things, for example a trade pact, that both houses and the president can agree on.  You get four or five of those things done, you’re able to say, ‘You see, we weren’t just the party of no.  We weren’t just refusing to cooperate.  We accomplished these things,'” said Sabato.

“At the same time, you have to keep the base happy, which means maybe you have votes on abolishing Obamacare .  Of course, Obama would veto anything like that, but it would excite the base.  It would prove to the base that their votes mattered and that they’re being heard,” he said.

Of course, Congress will only have a few months before presidential politics grind most major legislative efforts to a halt and the media and the experts begin to focus on the 2016 field.  Sabato says he and the crystal ball will be ready.

“We’re polishing it.  We’re getting it ready for the next cycle,” he quipped.

In 2014, American foreign policy was dominated by challenges from ISIS, Iran, Russia and other adversaries around the world, and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton says the next two years could be even more volatile because of how the Obama administration is handling these current crises.

Bolton has long seen Iran and it’s advancing nuclear program as the greatest threat to U.S. national security.  In November, talks for a long-term nuclear deal broke down but the U.S. pressed for talks to continue.  Bolton says that weakens American leverage and Obama administration actions toward other bad actors suggest it is always prepared to take a bad deal.

“If you’re an American adversary watching what has been happening in the case of Cuba, Iran is saying to themselves, ‘There are more concessions there for us to get.  Let’s just keep these negotiations going.  They’re desperate for a deal.  They want what they would consider another foreign policy success.’  So I think it only gets worse as the new year unfolds,” said Bolton, who alleges Obama still operates from a deeply flawed impression of the United States and the rest of the world.

“It’s consistent with their ideological predilection and the belief that really it’s America that’s the problem.  We were the problem in Cuba with our colonialist policy.  We’re the problem with Iran because if we just explained to Tehran that we don’t have designs against them, they’ll calm down and give up their nuclear weapons program.  The same applies to North Korea.  It’s a badly, badly distorted view of the world and what countries are actually the source of instability and danger,” said Bolton.

The biggest foreign policy headache for the Obama administration in 2014 came through the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  Obama dismissed the radical Islamists in January as Al Qaeda’s jayvee team.  ISIS subsequently captured Fallujah and Ramadi.  By summer, Mosul fell into ISIS hands and soon Baghdad was in range.  It was after the gruesome beheading of American hostages that Obama ordered air strikes to slow the ISIS advance and assist the Kurdish Peshmerga.  At the same time it vowed to train moderate rebels in Syria to fight against ISIS there.

Bolton calls the American response “inadequate” and believes ISIS is on the verge of establishing it’s own state in the Middle East that will be a magnet for jihadist sympathizers and is already attracting thousands of westerners who have valid passports and could wreak havoc in their home countries.  He says Obama’s instincts on ISIS were all wrong.

“I just don’t understand what he thinks his strategy is.  At the time of the Russian Revolution, Winston Churchill said, ‘We should have strangled Bolshevism in its cradle.’  That’s what we should have done to ISIS.  If it’s allowed to continue to build up its control, bring new adherents in, train new military personnel, it it simply going to make dislodging or overthrowing them – as the president himself said ‘degrading and destroying’ ISIS – it’s going to make it incalcuably more difficult and I’m afraid more costly in terms of human life,” said Bolton.

Before the ISIS threat burst into the headlines, most international attention was aimed at Russia and Ukraine.  With tensions rising even during the Sochi Olympics, Russia subsequently annexed Crimea to itself through a symbolic vote among Crimeans.  Russia is also arming and supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine.  Bolton says American and European sanctions never bothered Russian President Vladimir Putin but other factors are hurting Russia and could make it more dangerous on the world stage.

“The fall of oil prices has hurt Russia badly.  That doesn’t mean that Russia will necessarily behave in a more responsible fashion internationally.  It may behave more recklessly in order to divert public opinion, to blame the United States to focus attention overseas.  As we go into the new year, we’re actually looking at a more dangerous relationship, potentially, with the Russians (and) more instability in Eastern Europe, not less,” said Bolton.

After watching the Obama administration engage with governments in Iran and Cuba that have traditionally been isolated, Bolton suspects there could be more of that as the final years of this presidency unfold.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see the North Koreans try and open discussions to legitimize their nuclear weapons program, get diplomatic recognition from the United States.  The possibilities are endless.  I think we’ve got to worry about China and its designs in the east and the South China Sea,” said Bolton.

“It’s going to be a long two years remaining in the Obama administration, unfortunately,” he said.

Now that the blur of Christmas food and gifts are behind us, the reality of eating that much and spending that much is setting in.  The Capitol Steps address your regrets in a fun way in “I’m Beginning to Look A Lot Like Santa” and “Juggle Bills.”  Our guest is Steps Co-Founder Elaina Newport.

Partisan rancor set back bipartisan efforts to reform the U.S. tax system this year but activists are holding out hope that the incoming Republican Congress and President Obama can agree on ways to provide some relief to American businesses and bring greater clarity to the system for everyone.

Retiring House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Rep. Dave Camp (R-Michigan) had been cobbling together legislation to spark tax reform but Republicans say President Obama’s unilateral immigration actions further eroded their trust in him to negotiate in good faith or enforce anything Congress approves.

Despite the friction between Obama and the GOP, National Taxpayers Union President Pete Sepp believes a golden opportunity still exists to get this done.

“There’s still a fair amount of hope.  I think that’s because most lawmakers, both Democratic and Republican, recognize that this tax system, especially on the corporate side, is becoming so complex that it’s going to collapse under it’s own weight,” said Sepp, who even believes sweeping changes could be possible.

“Tax reform, whether it’s on a massive scale like completely scrapping the code or  doing something like a comprehensive overhaul is on the table no matter what,” he said.

If anything substantive happens on tax reform in the coming months, it will likely be based on the course charted by incoming Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin).

“He has said that he wants to review the way that tax reform is scored by the Joint Committee on Taxation,” said Sepp, noting that the projections for revenue from the Joint Committee on Taxation are the numbers which guide many fiscal decisions in Congress.

If there are changes in how reform is scored, Sepp believes that would create significant momentum to fix the system.

“If he can convince his fellow members of Congress that we need to take into account the dynamic economic effects of tax reform in those revenue scores, I think we’ll have a lot easier task in simplifying as well as lowering the rate,” said Sepp.

Sepp also believes the Senate Fiance Committee has a chance to make progress as well, citing a solid working relationship between incoming chairman Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and the ranking Democrat Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Oregon).

However, the window of opportunity may not be open for very long.  With politicians and the press likely to be focused on the presidential campaign before the end of 2015, Sepp says it’s imperative for the new Congress to jump on this right away.

“I would say no more than 6-8 months (to get it done). If we don’t see packages reported out of the House and Senate tax writing committees by the spring, we’re going to be in trouble,” he said.

Sepp says the good news is that lawmakers don’t have to start from scratch.  He says the bill worked on by Chairman Camp is a good starting point and while it does contain some provisions he’s not excited about and would like to see changed or removed.

Even if Congress can agree on major reforms, Sepp says President Obama could still be a wildcard and a potential deal-killer in this process.

“The devil will be in the details though, especially as the president unfortunately cranks up his rhetoric about big oil and wanting to take away what he perceives to be tax breaks or subsidies that really aren’t there,” said Sepp.

As for his top priorities for reform, Sepp says corporate taxes have to be at the top of the list.  It’s an issue that Democrats and Republicans have appeared to be in agreement about in the past.

“We’re seeing a gradual recognition that the U.S.’s top income tax rate for businesses is simply uncompetitive compared to the rest of the world.  The average among so-called OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, our closest competitors,  is about 25 percent.  Here in the United States, the combined state and federal rate is about 39 percent.  That is highly unattractive for businesses to either stay here or relocate here,” said Sepp.

Beyond that, Sepp is pushing hard for far more clarity in the tax code.

“If we’re not going to completely scrap the code in favor of a flat tax or a national consumption tax, then we need to have mechanisms built in to the tax system that will encourage simplification on a regular basis.  We should have a four-year, automatic simplification process, where the public and private sectors get together, exchange ideas and pass into laws ways to keep streamlining the tax code.  That way, the complexity won’t build up over time,” said Sepp.

Also high on Sepp’s agenda is scrapping whet he considers needless and burdensome taxes.

“We also need to look at the way we treat investment.  It is still problematic.  We need to get rid of entire categories of taxes, like the Death Tax.  So there’s still plenty of work to do here,” he said.

 

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review hand out their final political awards for 2014, as they choose their person of the year, turncoat of the year and offer their resolutions for 2015.

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review continue handing out political awards for 2014.Today, they discuss the most under-reported and most over-reported stories of 2014.  And they reveal their choices for best story of 2014.

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review continue handing out political awards for 2014.  Today they focus on the best political ideas, worst political ideas and boldest political tactics in 2014.

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review continue handing out political awards for 2014. Today they give awards for worst scandal, best political theater and worst political theater of 2014.

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review continue handing out political awards for 2014. Today they honor the figures they’re most sad to see pass away, rising political stars and figures fading into oblivion.

Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review begin announcing their political award winners for 2014.  Today they kick things off with honors for most overrated politician, most underrated politician and most honest politician.