Russia is aggressively stepping up it’s military presence in Syria and a decorated retired U.S. Air Force general says the plan is not just to prop up the Assad regime but to pursue closer ties with Iran to dominate the region and boost it’s sputtering economy.
Major tank shipments and other weapons have arrived in Syria in recent days and some of that arsenal is already headed out to confront ISIS. Still, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says there’s nothing out of the ordinary is happening.
“We have always been frank regarding the presence of our military experts in Syria who help the Syrian army in training and learning how to use the equipment,” Lavrov said last week. “And if further steps are needed we will stand ready to fully undertake those steps.”
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney says that’s just not true. He says there are clear short-term and long-term goals behind the Russian commitment. The immediate priority is to end the stalemate in the Syrian civil war in in favor of its longtime ally.
“There’s no question that the Russians are in for the full count to support Bashar al-Assad,” said McInerney. “Their first challenge is to defeat ISIS but also to defeat al-Nusra, which is a spin-off of Al Qaeda there, and any other adversaries that try to take Bashar al-Assad down.”
But McInerney believes that’s only the prologue.
“He’s got something much larger in mind. He sees that Iran is going to be the hegemon as a result of this nuclear agreement the Obama administration that the Obama administration has come up with. [Russian President Vladimir Putin] wants to have his chips on the side of the hegemon,” said McInerney.
“This is not just a temporary move on his part. This is a very important strategic move. He sees a weakness in the U.S. foreign policy and weakness in this administration’s desire to support historical allies that the United States has supported. It has both a tactical and a strategic purpose behind it,” he added.
The Russian-Iranian nexus seems like an odd coupling. Iran is the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism and Russia remains strongly committed to stamping out radical Islamic threats in Chechnya, Dagestan and elsewhere. Yet, Russia has led the way in supplying materials for the Iranian nuclear program.
McInerney calls it a “strategic attraction.”
“Clearly, they can sell a lot of weapons to the Iranians. They need the port in Syria because it is the only Mediterranean port that they have. That’s very important for the presence in NATO’s southern flank. Finally, they need a counter to the United States in the Middle East. If Iran’s the hegemon, and it’s closely allied with Russia, they benefit greatly,” said McInerney.
Sanctions relief is also a major consideration for the Russians, according to McInerney. Just as the nuclear talks lifted the fiscal choke hold for Tehran, the general believes Putin is smarting from sanctions targeting Moscow over it’s conduct in Ukraine.
“The difficulty is the sanctions that we have put on Russia and NATO has and the European Union because of the Ukraine are really driving the Russian economy down. They need to have allies to the south. That could be a strong economic boost to the Russian economy,” said McInerney.
So what is the proper U.S. response to Russia’s maneuvers? McInerney says Congress is embroiled in that right now.
“First, I would terminate the Iranian nuclear agreement. That is the most dangerous thing that is going on now. Is it surprising that Russia and China, who are members of the P5+1, strongly supported that agreement?” asked McInerney.
“This president will not do that, so what we are left with are tactical issues on what we can do on defeating ISIS, which helps Bashar al-Assad stay in power,” he added.
That being said, MCInerney agrees that ISIS presents a far more immediate threat than the Assad regime staying in power and strengthening troubling alliances.
“We’ve lived with Bashar al-Assad for a long time. He was on our side in Desert Storm when we went against Saddam Hussein. ISIS must be defeated and that evil ideology of radical Islam must defeated first in the Middle East,” said McInerney.
McInerney says the Middle East is getting more and more difficult to handle and this latest confluence of trouble stems from poor U.S. leadership in the region.
“This president has not left himself with many options that in the long run benefits the United States and our allies, like Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, in the Middle East. He hs given his successor a very difficult hand,” said McInerney.
