Donald Trump’s meteoric rise to Republican front-runner, Hillary Clinton’s strategic minefield and President Obama’s long-term impact on the executive branch are among the biggest political stories heading into what promises to be an election year unlike any we’ve seen in the past.
That’s the analysis of Larry Sabato, professor of political science at the University of Virginia, where he also directs the Center for Politics and operates Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The latter has proven to be one of the most accurate predictors of political races around the country.
Without question, the biggest political development of the year is the highly successful insurgent White House bid of billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump. After surprising most pundits by even getting in the race for the Republican nomination, Trump’s poll numbers soared. Each controversy that experts said would derail his bid only improved his standing among GOP voters.
Sabato says he’s never seen anything like it.
“Everybody compares him to (former independent presidential candidate H. Ross) Perot or this one or that one or the other one. No, he is his own man. He is unique. I don’t think we’ve ever had one like him and I’ll be surprised if we ever have another one like him,” said Sabato.
So why is Trump defying conventional wisdom and continuing to lead the crowded Republican field? Sabato says conventional is the last thing many voters in the GOP want in 2016.
“This past year was the first time Republicans were in control totally in Congress since 2006. Yet, the Republican base felt that very little got done. They didn’t think that their leaders had met the promises that they made during the campaign in 2014. That’s exactly what Trump was saying,” said Sabato.
“There’s a sizable portion of that base that likes Trump’s approach and, more than that, likes the way he approaches things. It’s his positions but it’s his style. They like his toughness,” said Sabato.
Sabato says events have also boosted Trump.
“It’s the man meeting the moment. What is the moment? Now it’s terrorism, so people are looking for a tough-minded candidate who will defend national interests and try to destroy ISIS and not contain ISIS or stop some of the homegrown terrorism here,” said Sabato.
Bottom line, says Sabato, Trump supporters are disgusted by what they’ve seen from Obama in the past seven years and don’t see the Republicans in Washington fighting hard enough to stop him.
“It’s anger within the base at their own leaders. It’s anger within the base at immigration. It’s anger within the base at terrorism, wanting a tough guy to handle it. Who steps forward? Trump is nothing if not tough,” said Sabato.
On the Democratic side, Sabato says Hillary Clinton is the obvious favorite for the nomination but he says the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is the most interesting development of the year.
“Bernie Sanders turned out to be much more significant than anybody thought he would be. I wouldn’t be shocked, even in his weakened state, if he won either Iowa or New Hampshire or both,” said Sabato.
Sabato sees two major challenges for Clinton’s road to the White House. The first is the same high expectations that ultimately shattered her aura of invincibility against Obama in 2008.
“How does Hillary Clinton win? Does she win cleanly? Does she put this away early? Does she stop all the questions about the emails and this scandal and what happened in the 1990’s and the queries about Bill? Is she going to stop that? Is it possible to stop that?” asked Sabato.
The other key factor is largely out of Clinton’s control. Sabato says Clinton could ultimately rise or fall based on what the nation thinks of Obama next November.
“Watch that almost more than anything else come fall. If President Obama is unpopular and has a low approval rating. I don’t think he can get Hillary Clinton elected. I don’t think she could get elected independent of him. If he moves back up somewhere around 50, then the prospect of a third consecutive term for the Democrats becomes possible again,” said Sabato.
Despite the sometimes frosty relationship between Obama and Clinton, Sabato says the president badly wants her to win.
“His goal, ultimately, has to be to direct the Democratic nominee, presumably Hillary Clinton. Otherwise, his legacy items for the most part are going to be repealed or greatly reduced,” said Sabato.
As for Obama, Sabato says the president is definitely a lame duck, especially with a Republican Congress unlikely to pursue much of anything on the White House agenda. Still, he says, Obama could still make things interesting given his penchant for pushing policy changes through executive order.
In fact, Sabato believes rolling back the executive branch power grab in recent years ought to be a major priority for the other branches of government.
“Presidents seem to use every opportunity available to expand the powers of the presidency at the expense of the other branches. At some point, I think there’ll be a rebellion in the courts rather than in the legislature given the numbers. But it’t probably going to come,” said Sabato.
“Give Obama points for expanding the power of the executive if you wish but the founders did establish a separation of powers and a balance between and among the powers. We have to make sure that that’s preserved,” said Sabato.
