Archives for September 2016

One of the chief architects of Donald Trump’s tax plan says the GOP nominee would place America on a course for explosive economic growth while Hillary Clinton’s vows of huge spending increases would lead to a recession and either higher taxes on the middle class or huge amounts of new debt.

“We’re cutting rates.  She’s raising them,” said Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore.  We’re helping small businesses.  She’s hitting them with more taxes.  We have an orientation toward more investment.  She is taxing investment.  So, this is a night and day comparison.”

During her convention speech, Clinton was very clear that she believes bigger government is the way to jump start the economy.

“In my first hundred days, we will work with both parties to pass the biggest investment in new, good-paying jobs wince World War II,” said Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.

Those investments would be used, in part, to provide free college tuition, forgive existing student loan debt and raise the minimum wage.

She was equally clear how she plans to pay for that.

“We’re going to pay for every single one of them,” said Clinton.  “Wall Street, corporations and the super-rich are going to start paying their fair share of taxes.”

Moore, who is also a senior economic contributor at FreedomWorks and a distinguished visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, says those grand promises carry a pretty harsh reality, starting with the mount of spending needed to enact those policies.

“By my count, she’s got about a trillion dollars in new spending.  That’s a lot, given we already have a $19 trillion national debt, soon to eclipse $20 trillion,” said Moore.

He says Clinton’s tax plan can soak the rich all she wants, but she still won’t have enough revenues.

“The idea that you’re going to get all the money for free college, free day care, free health care, free everything that you’re going to be able to get the money for that from the top one or two percent is just silly,” said Moore.

That reality, says Moore, would leave Clinton with two horrible options.

“The problem is you’re going to have to go after the middle class.  If you want these massive new entitlement giveaways to the middle class, the fiscal reality is that you’re going to have to tax the middle class to pay for it or you’re going to have to rack up massive new amounts of debt,” said Moore.

Besides suggesting Clinton’s math is fatally flawed, Moore says the sitting president is proof positive that the government spending huge sums of money does not result in job creation.

“Government spending doesn’t create jobs.  That should be one enduring lesson of the Obama years,” said Moore.  “This has been the flimsiest, weakest recovery since the 1940’s, so over 60 years.”

While noting that some government spending is needed, the Obama stimulus wasted nearly a trillion dollars with almost nothing to show for it.

“The money just went down a rat hole.  We don’t even know what happened to a lot of the money.  Some of it went to failed companies like Solyndra.  A lot of it went into programs like food stamps and so on.  They were just giveaways to people.  They had no positive economic impact at all,” said Moore.

Recent Commerce Department reports show the U.S. economy growing at just one percent.  Moore says that small growth also raises red flags about the Clinton plan.

“That’s pathetic.  That’s pitiful.  It;s the reason Americans are so angry.  When you’re at one percent growth, you’re not getting wage growth.  You’re not getting the job growth you need.  People are actually losing income relative to inflation,” said Moore.

“Fragile is the word I would use to describe this economy.  Can you think of anything dumber to do with a fragile economy than to have a massive tax increase?” said Moore.

Moore is one of the key figures in crafting the Trump tax plan, alongside fellow supply-siders Larry Kudlow and Art Laffer.  He says Trump is committed to using the tax code as a means to revive our sputtering economy.

The signature item would be to slash the corporate tax rate from the highest in the industrialized world, currently at 35 percent, down to 15 percent.  Moore says that would convince U.S. companies to stay here and encourage major expansion and hiring at businesses of all sizes.

“We are going to apply this 15 percent tax rate not only to the big corporations but every one of the 25 million small businesses in America today will get a 15 percent tax cut.  And they will get to immediately expense and write off all their capital purchases.  I believe, if we do this, we’re going to see one of the biggest economic booms we ever saw,” said Moore.

Personal income tax rates would also drop under the Trump plan.  Moore says that was among the clear “marching orders” from Trump to his team of economic experts.

“Number one, he wanted to make sure it didn’t blow a big hole in the deficit, so we’ve got the cost way down,” said Moore.  “Second, he said, ‘I don’t want this to be for millionaires and billionaires like me.’  He said, ‘I really want it to be oriented towards middle class workers who are really struggling to pay their bills and are financially stressed out.”

Moore says all families would see lower taxes.

“Rich people would pay about a third of their income in federal taxes.  That’s down from a rate of over 40 percent today.  Most of the tax breaks on the individual side are for the middle class workers.  Depending on the circumstances of a middle class family, they will save anywhere from $1,500 to $2,000 a year.

In the final analysis, Moore, who is admittedly partial to Trump, says the GOP nominee has a plan to bring the economy roaring back.

“Over the next five years, with a Donald Trump presidency, we will get four percent growth annually for five years.  That’s a 24 percent increase in the U.S. economy when you take the compounding effect.  That’s like adding another Texas to the U.S. economy,” said Moore.

However, he says Clinton’s plan would bring even harder times on the Americans who can least afford it.

“I really do worry she would plunge us into another recession.  Given the financial status of so many families, I think half of our families are not financially or economically prepared for a recession.  It could be gut-wrenching.  It’s too big a risk to take to be talking about massive new amounts of spending, taxes, regulation and borrowing,” said Moore.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are glad some of the worst names in media won’t be moderating debates this fall and they are pleased to see Chris Wallace on the list.  They also sigh as more evidence emerges showing the entanglement of the Clinton Foundation and the State Department while Hillary was secretary.  And they shudder as the speech police invade the Univ. of Nebraska but cheer as the Univ. of Missouri suffers in big ways after surrendering to campus radicals last semester.

Just one month after Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic presidential nomination, her convention bounce is over, her disapproval numbers are at record highs and women voters are one of the biggest reasons why.

In a new survey commissioned by ABC News and the Washington Post, just 41 percent of Americans see Clinton favorably while 56 view her as unfavorably.  Her numbers are still better than Republican nominee Donald Trump, who is saddled with a 63 percent disapproval rating.  Just 35 percent have a favorable opinion of him.

While not good, Trump’s numbers are staying largely consistent over the past month, ticking up one percentage point in approval since early August.  Clinton however has dropped several points.  In early August, 48 percent of Americans looked at her favorably while 50 percent saw her unfavorably.  In just four weeks, Clinton has fallen from a two point gap to a 15-point chasm.

And the biggest reason may be a considerable drop among women.  Just after the Democratic convention, the ABC News/Washington Post poll showed 54 percent of women had a positive impression of Clinton, with 43 percent not thinking highly of her.  Now, 52 percent of women voters see Clinton unfavorably and 45 percent approve of her.

“It is the lowest rating that she has had in terms of women liking and supporting her for an entire year,” said Independent Women’s Forum Senior Fellow Gayle Trotter.  “This is something that has been building awhile.  Her general unpopularity rating has taken a real hit in the last three weeks.”

Trotter says Clinton’s drop is largely to her own dishonesty and new revelations about her email server and conduct while secretary of state.

“If you look at the onslaught of revelations about her emails, about the representations that she made to media outlets like Chris Wallace on her emails and what James Comey, the director of the FBI, said about their investigation of her emails and her email server, this is something that is repeatedly in the public eye, and it is cannot help but effect Americans’ view of her,” said Trotter.

Being underwater ought to be especially concerning to women, according to Trotter, given that Clinton has repeatedly touted herself as a history-making female candidate.

“Hillary has gone on and on about playing the woman card to the extent that her campaign, as a donation tactic, was even offering to send out to her donors an actual ‘woman card’ in appreciation for donations to her campaign that she’s taking such a hit among the group, that her campaign believes should be fully in in her corner,” said Trotter.

And Trotter believes there is more room for Clinton to slip in the minds of women and other voters.

“Hillary has not only been dishonest about her time in office and not only was incompetent in the carrying out of her duties, but that she has continued to try to mislead the American public about those two matters.  Certainly she has room to fall even further,” said Trotter.

Trump’s numbers with women are even worse.  Only 33 percent of female voters see Trump favorably, while 65 percent don’t like him.  However, Trump did gain seven points in favorability among women throughout August.

In addition, dropping favorability numbers for Clinton do not equal lost votes.  So is there a way for Trump to appeal to women and win their votes come November?  Trotter sees a golden opportunity for him on national security, pointing out the Obama administration’s policy of emptying out the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay and the multiple terrorist attacks carried out on American soil during Obama’s term.

“I think that Donald Trump is strong on this issue and that is a natural way that (new campaign manager) KellyAnne Conway can help him target his message, particularly to women, that he understands this issue, that his policies would be a break from the dangerous and ineffective policies of the Obama administration.  Hillary Clinton would only reflect a third term of President Obama’s losing strategy on national security and keeping the American homeland safe,” said Trotter.

“If he’s particularly reaching out to women’s groups, that is something that would be authentic for him to talk about and it would be something that would resonate with American women,” said Trotter.

Trotter also believes Trump is benefiting from the advice and expertise of Conway, who is a longtime pollster and excels in political messaging.

“I think we are seeing the slight uptick in his popularity reflecting her being brought into the campaign.  With her at the helm of reaching out to these groups (women and minorities), there is a huge possibility that he could really increase his popularity among women enough that it would make a difference in this election,” said Trotter.

However, she says even the most effective campaign strategy faces a tough road because all of that messaging gets filtered through one of Clinton’s strongest allies – the media.

“They have really become a SuperPAC for Hillary Clinton.  They have been able to go after Trump on every single, possible front that you can possibly imagine,” said Clinton.

Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America react to Donald Trump’s sudden trip to Mexico.  They also discuss the revelation that taxpayers paid for Hillary Clinton’s private email server.  And they express  their disgust over would-be Reagan assassin John Hinckley, Jr. being allowed to go free.