Longtime pollster and strategist Pat Caddell says we may not only be headed towards a contentious Republican convention but that fed up voters in both parties and beyond are so furious we may soon see a dramatic and permanent shift in the political landscape.
“As I predicted a year ago, I said this was going to be 1968 on steroids in terms of surprises, hopefully not the deaths. And I think it’s lived up to that,” said Caddell, who was one of the young advisers that helped propel Jimmy Carter to an unlikely victory in 1976.
Despite firmly remaining a Democrat, Caddell has also been a withering critic of his own party, including President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
The rise of Donald Trump to clear front-runner status in the GOP field is the biggest surprise in the 2016 campaign, but Caddell says it’s symptomatic of something even bigger.
“We are entering a new political paradigm and the political class and the media just don’t understand or recognize it,” said Caddell. “There may be a third party coming, a major one before this is over.”
Caddell’s analysis comes as a group of grassroots conservative met Thursday to discuss how to prevent Trump from securing the Republican nomination, either at the ballot box or at a contested convention.
Trump has said that if he has a commanding lead in delegates, even if he doesn’t have the majority, there should be no question he should be the nominee. He predicted “riots” if he were denied While Caddell didn’t address the potential for chaos, he largely agrees with Trump’s analysis.
“I think if they try to have a convention where they try to take the nomination away from a clear front-runner, it will blow the Republican Party up,” said Caddell.
But what is meant by a clear front-runner? Trump used a 600-700 delegate lead as a an example when warning the GOP against denying him the nomination, but how close does it need to be for Caddell to consider Ted Cruz a viable option at a contested convention?
“They would need to be fairly close to him,” said Caddell, declining to give a specific margin.
While Caddell believes choosing a candidate who does not lead the delegate race would stir major controversy, he is especially appalled at the suggestion of the GOP choosing a non-candidate as a consensus choice. Earlier this week, former House Speaker John Boehner said current Speaker Paul Ryan would be a good nominee if no one could win a majority of delegates.
“The notion I most think is ridiculous is somehow you’re going to take the nomination away and give it to someone who didn’t run this year,” said Caddell. “The notion you’re going to use the fact a lot of delegates are chosen by state committees and whatever, to change the rules and have someone parachute into this race is an insanity.”
He says there is no doubt that Trump has the political establishment very concerned.
“A lot of the opposition to Trump is that he is a standing threat to the old order, to the corrupt arrangements and other things. That is at the heart of the opposition here,” said Caddell, who says while Trump is a larger-than-life personality, it’s the voters who are perpetuating this movement.
“Donald Trump hasn’t created this situation. The voters have created this situation. They created it because they are angry at the broad establishment, as is most of the country,” said Caddell.
The establishment is certainly not friendly towards Trump, but many grassroots conservatives recoil from him as well, due to what they consider his sudden conversion on a host of core issues and what they consider a coarse and crass personality.
Caddell says neither group opposed to Trump has really figured out why he’s so popular.
“They don’t understand what he is motivating and what there is in the country. That’s why I think they’ve been losing,” said Caddell.
“He speaks to the things they’re concerned about: a country in decline, the trade deals,” said Caddell, who says Trump’s repeated assertions that he is beholden to no special interests is extremely effective right now.
But while the GOP is in turmoil, Caddell says his fellow Democrats aren’t faring much better.
“This is a party that’s playing with it’s own version of suicide. They have a candidate (Hillary Clinton) who may well be knocked out of this race by her legal problems. If not, they’re going to haunt her and they’re only the beginning of the problems she’s got,” said Caddell.
Clinton beats Trump in most head-to-head polls and both have immense unfavorable ratings. However, Caddell says Democrats should not expect to coast to victory if Trump is in fact the nominee.
“She keeps changing her positions. She looks desperate,” he said. “I don’t think they’re in for a treat either. Democrats have got to ask themselves, ‘Why are you nominating somebody with this kind of baggage?'”
