Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review offer their final predictions on the razor-close 2012 presidential race and they agree which state (not Ohio) will determine the winner of this election. They also discuss why they believe it will be a good night for the House GOP but not so good for Republican efforts to gain the majority in the Senate. But their predictions don’t decide the winners…your votes do. Be sure to cast an informed ballot on Tuesday.
Life In the Democratic Crosshairs
Democrats lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives and they are fiercely targeting GOP members in key swing districts.
Michigan Rep. Dan Benishek won in 2010 after Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak retired rather than face the voters after providing the final boost for the Obama health care package. Benishek claimed the seat with a double-digit win over longtime Democratic state lawmaker Gary McDowell. But McDowell is back and he’s got several well-funded special interests helping him out.
Benishek is still confident of victory.
“We’re going to win,” said Benishek. “It’s a close race. There’s a lot of outside groups getting involved. They want this seat back. They think they own it. I’m not a career politician. I’m a doctor and I’m just trying to do thisto make sure that our children have an opportunity for the same opportunities we had growing up.”
Benishek says the most pressing needs in Washington are to strip away burdensome regulation, bring certainty to the tax code and stop the rising cost of health care, which he says is only getting worse because of the Obama health care laws.
He also says there is a world of difference between him and McDowell.
“It’s tough for businesses to flourish. Frankly, the number one issue to me is the economy and jobs,” said Benishek. “Gary McDowell was part of the (former Gov. Jennifer) Granholm administration. He was in the state legislature. He voted for the Granholm stimulus. He voted for the Michigan business tax, which was a very onerous tax on business and drove companies into bankruptcy and out of the state. He doesn’t really have a lot of ideas and his allies are just throwing a lot of negative campaign ads at me and we’ve had to respond. You know, it’s been a brutal battle.”
Benishek and the new Republican House majority vowed to crack down on spending and repeal the Obama health plan. Neither has been accomplished, but Benishek says the GOP still has a strong record to run on will be in position to do big things if the election results turn out well for them.
“We put a stop to Mr. Obama’s agenda,” he said. “In the first two years of the Obama administration, they passed a trillion dollar stimulus. They passed the health care law. Frankly, it allowed them to spend more the last two years. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to peel back the spending because we don’t have the Senate of the White House. This is our opportunity to get those two houses and peel back some of the spending and ridiculous spending that this administration is putting forward.”
Benishek also blasts Obama for a lack of leadership, saying he’s never been invited to meet with the president on anything and neither have most Republicans or even the vast majority of Democrats.
The congressman also believes Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has a chance to carry Michigan.
“Everywhere I go, people say the same thing that they think the president’s policies have failed,” said Benishek. “I haven’t spoken to anyone that voted for Mr. McCain tha’s going to vote for Mr. Obama but I know a lot of people that voted for Mr. Obama that say they’re going to vote for Mr. Romney.”
Mitt’s Rap
Mitt Romney has a reputation for being a bit square, so the Capitol Steps try to show the more casual side of the GOP nominee. Our guest is Steps Co-Founder Elaina Newport.
‘Grasping at Anything’
Political figures from former Vice President Al Gore to Rep. Henry Waxman claim global warming is responsible for Hurricane Sandy and the havoc she wrought on the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg says his late endorsement of President Obama is largely because he believes Obama will do more to combat global warming and help avert storms like the one that just pounded his city.
But while blaming man’s impact on his environment may be the politically trendy explanation for the destructive storms from earlier this week, but climate expert Leighton Steward says the facts simply don’t back up that argument. Steward is a geologist, climate adviser to former NASA astronauts and scientists critical of the agency for embracing the conventional wisdom on climate change and author of a book that breaks down the issues of global warming for the non-scientist.
“I think they’re grasping at anything that might be conceived as empirical evidence since they really have essentially none to back up their catastrophic forecasts,” said Steward, who contends climate change activists are simply trying to instill fear in people. “You can scare a lot of people and scare a lot of money out of their pocket one way or another, and that’s what they’re doing. But the real evidence that you look at and what’s happening with climate today and what has happened to climate over the years shows that carbon dioxide is not having that much of an effect on the climate.”
The alleged consensus of the scientific community is that human activity leads to greater emissions of carbon dioxide which leads to higher temperatures and more extreme climates. Steward says there’s a major problem with that theory.
“The earth has not warmed in 16 years,” he said, noting that data comes from British scientists who are revered in the climate change movement. “All the while, (carbon dioxide) levels been rising, rapidly.”
So if climate change is not responsible for the devastating storm, what does Steward see as the culprit? He says Sandy was barely a Category 1 hurricane, but when she happened to collide with cold weather systems over the east coast, we got this disaster.
Steward says evidence throughout history shows a general warming trend started in 1715, well before the industrial revolution.
Steward also offers advice to the political and media personalities looking to turn this tragedy into a legislative victory.
“Instead of our current administration wasting money trying to prevent Mother Nature from doing these natural occurring effects, they need to be thinking what they need to do when these impacts do hit us,” said Steward, noting that tax dollars should be spent on burying power lines and raising seawalls.
Three Martini Lunch 11/2/12
Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review are largely impressed with Mitt Romney’s closing message. They groan as the latest jobs report reveals the economy is still stuck in neutral. And they slam New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg for stressing global warming in his endorsement of Obama and for pressing forward with the New York City Marathon when so many residents are still without power, fuel and even food.
Col. Perkins Shoots Back
Two-term Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly is under heavy fire for allegedly suggesting that time spent serving in local government better qualifies a person to serve in Congress than years of military service.
The controversy stems from comments Connolly made at the Springfield Chamber of Commerce, where he touted his time serving in local government in Fairfax County, Virginia.
“He’s reacting to a comment that I made that you can’t run for federal office on you local political record no matter how good that might be,” said retired U.S. Army Col Chris Perkins, who is the Republican challenger to Connolly in this year’s campaign. “It’s less convenient to talk about your votes on Obamacare and your vote on sequestration – these big defense cuts.”
Connolly’s comments at the Chamber of Commerce event were designed to defend his time in local government. But the congressman also took the opportunity to suggest his opponent has been invisible in his community.
“I hope that (my) experience and that sweat equity that I’ve put in in elective life for the past 18 years – and before that for 15 years as a civic activist – will count for something,” said Connolly at the event. “I hope you’ll measure that against somebody who wore the uniform and honored his country and I honor him for that service. But in the 10 years since he retired, he hasn’t shown up. He has no local credentials. In fact, more often than not, he hasn’t voted.”
Perkins is not amused.
“The more I realized how much this disenfranchises all veterans, it really got me annoyed,” he said, noting the comments have fired up many voters in a district full of active duty personnel and veterans. Perkins notes that Connolly succeeded in getting a more favorable district when the lines were redrawn, but while the district skews more Democratic it also includes more people connected with the military.
“What he did not factor in is that he brought in a number of veterans up in the Reston area and the Dumfries area down in the South. So, we have the highest density of veterans in the 11th district of Virginia. And they’re mad.”
So what experience does Perkins bring to the race and potentially to Congress?
“I moved here in 1991 when Uncle Sam sent me to Capitol Hill as a Congressional Fellow,” he said. “So I’ve been here for the past 22 years.”
Perkins, a Green Beret and a longtime member of the Army’s Special Forces, is also furious with Connolly for supporting major defense cuts that he says would greatly damage the economy in the district located just a few miles from the Pentagon and the nation’s capital.
“The biggest issue we’re seeing right now is this sequestration issue,” said Perkins. “The 11th district is number one hardest hit of all 435 districts if these defense cuts go forward. Certainly from a small business perspective and even the public sector employees who will be losing their jobs and the defense contractors, these defense cuts that Congressman Connolly has voted in favor of…is the number one issue and we’ve got to fix that. Chairman McKeon of the Armed Services Committee is going to do what he can to get me a slot on that committee so that I can help.”
Perkins says he would also be strong on reducing our deficit and debt, claiming he would only support an increase in the debt ceiling if real, specific cuts were spelled out. He says entitlements are the areas most ripe for cutting since they account for almost half of the federal spending.
Three Martini Lunch 11/1/12
Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review are encouraged that Karl Rove predicts a Romney win after crunching all the numbers. They also frown as the supposedly easy Senate pick-up in Nebraska is suddenly much tighter. And they try to make sense of the many different rumors circulating about the existence of devastating evidence of the Obama administration’s actions on Benghazi.
‘This Election is About the Future’
The first female fighter pilot in combat is now immersed in a new battle – trying to win a tight Congressional race for the seat formerly held by Gabrielle Giffords.
Martha McSally is a military pioneer. In addition to becoming the first female fighter pilot to see combat, she was also the first woman to command a fighter squadron. In addition, she also fought – and won – a battle against the Pentagon after the government initially ordered female service members to wear traditional Muslim dress when off base in Saudi Arabia. She was most recently serving in the national security industry in Europe when she decided to come home and run for office.
“I care deeply about my country and our freedoms,” said McSally. “I’m very concerned about the direction we’re going, concerned about what’s going on in Washington, D.C. I feel like we need leaders with moral courage and experience to sit down and solve the complex problems that are facing our nation right now. That’s just not happening. They’re failing. So I really felt this call to duty to step up and serve.”
McSally faces a tough challenge against incumbent Democratic Rep. Ron Barber. Barber won a special election earlier this year to complete the term of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who resigned to focus on her recovery from horrific gunshot wounds. Barber is a former Giffords staffer, who is strongly endorsed by his former boss.
McSally is sensitive to the emotions toward Rep. Giffords in the district but says those emotions willnot be a major factor in her race against Rep. Barber.
“This election is about the future, who is the right person to represent the people of southern Arizona,” said McSally. “We elect unique people. We’re independent thinkers, and we’ve had a tradition. Whether it’s Mo Udall, Jim Kolbe, Gabby Giffords, of electing people who are successful people who can think on their feet on their own right and represent the independent-minded people of southern Arizona. I complete that picture. Ron Barber is a staffer who completed her term. The choice is very clear.”
McSally is quick to point out that Barber’s background proves he’s not much of a leader.
“He’s been a lifelong bureaucrat,” she says. “So you have a very clear contrast between a leader and a follower, a pioneer and a bureaucrat, a commander and a staffer.”
She says Barber’s brief stint in Congress is more evidence that he’s not much of a leader and simply does the will of Democratic leaders.
“Eighty-nine percent of the time, he’s just voting the line. He’s a foot soldier. He’s a follower, just doing what he’s told” said McSally.
She also accuses Barber of dragging out tired talking points that don’t even apply to this campaign.
“In an editorial board interview, while I’m sitting next to him, he said, ‘The Republican Party is essentially a bunch of white guys with big money.’ And I’m sitting next to him as a middle class woman who’s a retired military officer. And I’m like, ‘Ron, the talking point doesn’t stick. This is just not helpful right now. You’re throwing out the divisive rhetoric that is what’s wrong with Washington, D.C.’ He literally became a politician overnight.”
McSally says many issues prompted her to run, from a weak economy to mounting debt to international challenges. She would not offer many specifics on her economic positions, refusing to say whether she would oppose future increases in the debt ceiling. Instead, she says all of these issues require leadership and the determination to “knuckle down” to solve problems.
She did get more specific on immigration reform, which is always a front-burner issues in southern Arizona. Once again, McSally touts her experience as a major asset compared to Rep. Barber.
“It’s a public safety issue. It’s a national security issue,” she said. “I’ve been serving for 26 years in the military all over the world. I understand these transnational threats and how we need to combat them. I understand how we need to use a combination of barriers and fences and manpower and sensors and airborne assets in order to actually have intelligence-driven operations to secure our border. I can provide that oversight to the Department of Homeland Security based on my experience and my leadership, and Ron Barber needs a staffer to prepare him on those issues because he doesn’t have that experience.”
Three Martini Lunch 10/31/12
Greg Corombos of Radio America and Jim Geraghty of National Review are encouraged that both the Romney and Obama campaigns are spending more money in states that were thought to be easy Obama victories. They also wonder if Hurricane Sandy will dent Romney’s momentum and give a boost to Obama as he tries to demonstrate his hands-on leadership. And they call MSNBC insufferable for slamming Mitt Romney after Romney used events to collect goods for storm victims.
Santorum Sees GOP Surge
Former Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum believes Mitt Romney has the momentum heading into next week’s elections and he’s also defending embattled GOP Senate hopefuls Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin as they take heat for comments on rape and abortion.
Santorum says there’s no doubt Romney has the momentum in the race for the White House.
“If I was playing poker and I had two hands to choose from, I think I’d take Gov. Romney’s hand right now,” said Santorum. “Key states that looked to be very squarely in the Obama camp are now very much in play like Pennsylvania, Minnesota for example, Wisconsin, all of those states are very much in play.”
Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania hasn’t gone for the Republican nominee since 1988, but Santorum sees three factors that work in Romney’s favor. He says the Obama “war” on energy and manufacturing is deeply unpopular in the state. Santorum says Romney is also doing better with voters in the Philadelphia suburbs, which is critical to victory. He also sees far less enthusiasm for Obama inside Philadelphia itself.
Santorum was runner-up to Romney in the Republican primaries and at times the rhetoric between the two was very heated. However, he says he not only strongly prefers Romney over President Obama but is genuinely excited about the prospect of a Romney presidency.
“We were concerned about the future of our country,” Santorum said about his family’s decision for him to seek the nomination this year. “We wanted to make sure that Barack Obama was not re-elected president. We felt we had to go out and do everything we felt we could do for our seven children and for future generations of Americans to make sure that we had a new president. Now we have an opportunity to have a new president and I’m very excited about that prospect. Gov. Romney’s going to be light years better than Barack Obama on every front – everything from our national security to the handling of our economy and our fiscal problems to our culture. I’m excited about it. I think that a Romney presidency will be a marked improvement and a completely different direction than where President Obama is taking us.”
Santorum prides himself as being a strong conservative in all areas but is probably most closely associated with his culturally conservative views. He says it’s a big mistake for the Republican establishment to think the party cannot appeal to independents and the base by holding strong convictions on traditional values.
“Let’s just look at Minnesota,” said Santorum. “Who would’ve thought Minnesota would be anywhere close to being a toss-up state in this election. You know what happens to be going on in Minnesota that’s making that the case? There’s a marriage amendment on the ballot. Go back to 2004 when George Bush won Ohio. The reason he won Ohio? There was a marriage amendment on the ballot and it drove out a lot of turnout in areas where, frankly, Republicans need high turnout if they’re going to win elections.”
Santorum says the media and party elites diminish the importance of values issues because they don’t think they’re important but he says regular Americans do place a high priority on those issues.
He offers the same indictment of party officials and the mainstream media in their reaction to recent controversies over rape and abortion in two high-profile Senate campaigns.
Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin is still struggling to make up ground after suggesting in August that women’s bodies have natural mechanisms to prevent pregnancy in cases of “legitimate rape”. Last week, Mourdock came under fire after a debate response in which he said children conceived during rape should have the right to life because God intended for that life to be created in that way.
Santorum views those comments very differently.
“Both of them, particularly in Todd Akin’s case, was very inarticulate in the way he addressed it,” said Santorum. “I’ve watched the Richard Mourdock comment repeatedly. I think any believer would understand exactly what he meant and what he said…which is that God doesn’t make mistakes. God intends every human life that comes into being to have the opportunity for life. I think Todd Akin said a dumb thing. I think Richard Mourdock said what most believers believe.
“We have a bunch of folks in the media who don’t see the world that way, and are trying to make it into something that it’s not. That to me was a real indication of how screwed up the media is that they focus three days of coverage on that while we are finding information about the president potentially knowing – it looks like he did know – what was going on in real time in Benghazi. He and the White House basically ordered our men in that embassy to to fend for themselves and not try to support them. That somehow is not a story, and someone stating a biblically-held world view as to God’s intention for every life to have the opportunity to be born is somehow big new.”
While Santorum rejects Akin’s statements on rape and pregnancy, he is still among the few high-profile Republicans actively assisting Akin’s Senate bid. Both the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee refused to back Akin, even after he decided to stay in the race.
“It’s a double standard. The moral cultural issues are always the ones that the elites in our party tend to steer away from,” said Santorum, noting that a candidate would never be pressured to resign for saying something strange about tax policy. “What Todd Akin said was stupid. He apologized for it, said he certainly misspoke in a way that certainly was offensive. But candidates, unfortunately, do that all the time. The question is did we apologize for it (and) did he make clear what his position is and the answer is yes on both fronts. It’s time to move on and that’s what I’ve done. Hopefully, the people of Missouri are good and decent people who understand that people make mistakes but know Todd Akin from 16 years in public life and know him to be a good and competent public servant and someone who has the strong ideas across the board on conservative principles will stand behind him, unlike the Republican establishment.”
Santorum is also the author of a new book, “American Patriots,” in which he seeks to promote the American First principles that were the hallmark of his campaign.
“The lack of understanding of who we are as a country is still shockingly low,” he said. “What I wanted to do was write a book about who we are as Americans and that’s what the overarching theme of the book is. But then I wanted to illustrate it with stories of ordinary people at the time of the Revolution who did in some cases ordinary things (and) in some cases extraordinary things but all combined to help us win our freedom.”
Santorum hopes the stories will motivate Americans to do ordinary and extraordinary things to protect our freedoms.