Almost everyone who will vote in 2020 has already made up their minds. The 2018 midterms showed a divided America and political scientist Larry Sabato says we’ll see the same thing in the next cycle as America gears up for a presidential race.
Sabato, who directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, says Americans are locked into their political views and are not budging. He says this is proven in President Trump’s unprecedented poll numbers, which hardly ever budge.
“Not much has changed, not much since the day he was elected in November 2016,” said Sabato. “He got 46 percent of the vote. I think if you filter the polls through likely voter status, you’ll find that he comes out about 46 percent. Nothing’s changed.”
Sabato says this is also evident in how the midterms played out, with some voters sharply rebuking him and others giving him a bigger majority in the Senate.
“The message in the House election was that people wanted a check and balance on President Trump. That’s the national election because you didn’t have a national election for Senate and for governors,” said Sabato.
“President Trump’s luck held because he was able to add two seats to the U.S. Senate. Given the fact that Republicans already had the majority, those two extra votes will come in very handy for him in the new year,” said Sabato.
As for the outgoing Congress, Sabato suspects longtime GOP lawmakers will see the past two years as a great success due to passing tax cuts and criminal justice reform while confirming a record number of judges. He suspects younger, more conservative members will feel like opportunities were missed on spending, repealing Obamacare and more.
Listen to the full podcast to hear Sabato’s assessment of the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, how Democrats will act once they have the majority in the House, and why he thinks there may be more than 20 Democrats running for president in 2020.