Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are thrilled to hear House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi state she will run for Speaker of the House if Democrats win back the majority. It’s hard to imagine a better talking point for GOP candidates. They also cringe as Vice President Mike Pence gives a shout out to former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio during a visit to Arizona, noting Arpaio’s controversial record and how he would be a sure-fire loser if nominated for the U.S. Senate. And they’re not exactly shocked to learn that Donald Trump dictated the glowing, over-the-top letter released by his doctor in the 2016 campaign that vowed he would be the healthiest person ever to be president of the United States.
President Trump
Supremes Mull Travel Ban, Railroading Ronny Jackson, Kanye Chaos Explodes
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are cautiously optimistic after the Supreme Court appears to support the constitutionality of President Trump’s proposed travel ban. They also shake their heads at the sudden outrage over presidential physician Admiral Ronny Jackson, as Democrat Sen. Jon Tester and the media run wild with stories of Jackson’s drunkenness and prescription drug recklessness, yet somehow none of this ever came to light while Jackson served as doctor to President Obama and his family. And they sigh as the conservative love affair and liberal outrage over Kanye West hits another level after Kanye tweets that he loves Trump, slams Obama, and Kim Kardashian tweets in strong support of Kanye’s right to think for himself.
Iran Desperate for U.S. to Keep Nuke Deal
President Trump’s instinct is to scrap the Iran nuclear deal while French President Emmanuel Macron is willing to amend it but not rescind it without another plan in place, but a leading figure in the Iranian resistance says the deal doesn’t stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons but does help the radical mullahs stay in power.
President Trump has until May 12 to declare whether Iran is in compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and whether the U.S. will remain a party to the seven-nation agreement.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, says despite Tehran’s bluster about exiting the deal if the U.S. does, the Iranian leaders badly need the agreement to continue.
“There’s no way the Iranian regime wants to lose this agreement. They want to do everything possible to keep it, because the regime knows that absent this agreement, there’s really not too many other options left for them,” said Jafarzadeh, who says threats to the contrary are nothing but “hot air.”.
He says that’s because internal unrest is reaching a boiling point.
“The regime is facing tremendous problems domestically, particularly on the economic side of it. We’ve seen the uprising going on since December that were built around the economic corruption in Iran and the high rise in prices for very basic food. Inflation is so high. Inflation is skyrocketing,” said Jafarzadeh.
Iran is clamping down on media outlets and social media, so reports of the ongoing protests are hard to find, but Jafarzadeh says they are still going strong and are appearing in many different parts of the country.
“The protests are continuing ever since they started. It expanded to 142 cities starting back in December,” said Jafarzadeh, listing off a number of cities seeing major protests in the past several days.
“Every week there is a new hot spot in Iran. People are chanting with the same intensity against the regime, making significant demands, none of which the regime can really meet,” said Jafarzadeh.
He says some chants even explicitly scold the government for blaming its problems on America and stating that only the Iranian regime is to blame.
Keeping the deal in place is critical for the Iranian leaders because the money that flowed back into Iran from the agreement has been trumpeted as the solution to Iran’s economic problems.
However, even that good fortune could soon backfire on Iran’s leadership.
“Once the people realize that all the money that was given to the Iranian regime ended up in the pocket of the mullahs, the ayatollahs, and the Revolutionary Guard. It was basically the military structure and the clerical structure that benefited from that.
“Imagine if there’s more pressure built against the regime what kind of political problems it’s going to create for the Iranian regime,” said Jafarzadeh.
The more pertinent issue for Trump, Macron, and other world leaders is whether the JCPOA is actually preventing the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program. Jafarzadeh is convinced it doesn’t.
“The agreement has kept almost all of the nuclear infrastructure of the Iranian regime intact. It has allowed the research and development of more advanced centrifuges that could actually enrich uranium much faster and more efficiently further down the road.
“It hasn’t put any meaningful restrictions on the missile program of the Iranian regime, which is really marching forward with more missile tests on nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. And it has this ridiculous sunset clause. In a few years, all those restrictions on the nuclear program are removed,” said Jafarzadeh.
And he says the hurdles to inspections make enforcement of the existing deal virtually impossible.
“Most importantly, there’s no serious access and inspection of a number of nuclear sites where the core of the nuclear program of Iran is. It’s not just the enrichment but the weaponization part of the program. We exposed at least six nuclear sites we believe need to be inspected,” said Jafarzadeh.
He says the bottom line is the JCPOA doesn’t stop Iran from getting nukes.
“As of now, the current restrictions are not sufficient enough to prevent the Iranian regime from developing nuclear weapons further down the road,” said Jafarzadeh.
North Korea Deal Possible if Trump Keeps Pressure On
South Korea’s president says North Korea is ready to scrap its nuclear weapons program with virtually no conditions, but a leading expert on North Korea says President Trump must keep the heat on Kim Jong Un and China to get a deal worth signing.
Gordon Chang, author of “Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World,” also says the South Korean president might be a bigger stumbling block to an acceptable deal than Kim is.
Optimism is on the upswing for the upcoming summit between Trump and Kim after South Korean President Moon Jae-in publicly indicated that North Korea is prepared to give up its nuclear program.
“I don’t think denuclearization has different meanings for South and North Korea. The North is expressing a will for a complete denuclearization,” Moon said Thursday, according to Reuters.
“They have not attached any conditions that the U.S. cannot accept, such as the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. All they are talking about is the end of hostile policies against North Korea, followed by a guarantee of security,” added Moon.
Kim has said very little publicly, but Chang still sees an opportunity for something significant to happen in the Trump-Kim talks.
“We should be cautiously optimistic that President Trump, if he wants to exert American power, can perhaps bring a very good outcome to the Korean Peninsula,” said Chang.
“This provides the opportunity for a breakthrough. I’m sure Kim Jong Un doesn’t want to give up his most destructive weapons and won’t do it unless there’s severe pressure, but President Trump is in a position to apply that pressure,” said Chang.
According to Chang, Kim is rattled by Trump’s policies and personnel choices, and that may mean he’s ready to make major concessions.
“He doesn’t want the the U.S. to strike his nuclear or his missile facilities. You now have John Bolton as national security adviser, who made some very hawkish statements when he was a Fox News contributor. I’m sure that’s unnerving Kim and probably the Chinese as well,” said Chang, who believes the pain of sanctions is a factor here as well.
“I do think that our sanctions campaign has been working. There were reports, for instance, from South Korea that North Korea could run out of foreign exchange reserves by October. That’s maybe a little bit optimistic but, nonetheless, we do know they’re running out of money.
“And we’re also hearing from the Chinese that Office #39, which is the Kim family slush fund, is low on cash. There’s a lot of information that corroborates the view that Kim actually needs sanctions relief,” said Chang.
Chang believes Trump should meet with Kim but should crank up the pressure even more. He also hopes Trump allies pressure on China.
“In the last month, Beijing has done some things which are really disturbing, in violating the UN sanctions openly. So we need to put some pressure on the Chinese right now to make sure that Kim understands that President Trump is willing to go not only against him but also against China,” said Chang.
Even more encouraging for Chang than North Korea’s reported willingness to give up its nukes is the mindset President Trump says he is taking into the meeting with Kim.
“President Trump said something significant on Wednesday at his joint press conference with Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister. He said he’s willing to walk away, and that’s absolutely critical. If you’re willing to walk away, you can get a good deal,” said Chang.
He says the biggest mistake the Obama administration made in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal was to make it clear the U.S. was eager for a deal.
However, the biggest stumbling block to forcing Kim’s hand may be South Korea. Moon is desperate to achieve unity on the Korean peninsula, and that may play to Kim’s favor.
“We’ve got to be more concerned about Moon Jae-in than we do about Kim Jong Un. We know that Kim is an out-and-out villain. I think we need to view Moon in a very suspicious light, especially because of the things he has done to undermine the United States and also because of what he wants to do,” said Chang.
North Korea’s overarching objective is to conquer South Korea and Chang says Moon and his sympathetic allies in Seoul are doing some of Kim’s work for him.
“He’s got a willing partner in Moon Jae-in, who is trying to amend the South Korean constitution to make it more compatible with North Korea. Moon has a lot of senior advisers who, in their college days, were openly pro-North Korean and today they won’t disavow those earlier positions,” said Chang.
Libby Pardon Revives Special Counsel Debate
While the news cycle continues at a breakneck pace, a prominent Washington attorney President Trump’s recent pardon of former George W. Bush administration official Lewis “Scooter” Libby ends a shameful chapter in American jurisprudence and is a clear example of why the special counsel belongs on the ash heap of U.S. history.
On April 13, Trump pardoned Libby, who was feeling the effects of painkillers when the president called. The president also called Libby’s attorneys, Victoria Toensing and joe diGenova.
“He said, ‘I just signed it. The ink’s not dry,'” recalled Toensing. “He said, ‘I don’t know the guy, but I know he was screwed.’ When they put the press release out, they cleaned that up a little bit.”
Toensing says Trump was troubled by what he perceived as a major injustice.
“This is part of Donald Trump’s personality. He did not like that somebody got the raw end of a deal. He just didn’t like it, and he decided to do what he could do,” said Toensing, who submitted the pardon request last year.
Libby was convicted of perjury, obstruction of justice, and making false statements, in 2007, four years after the name of CIA operative Valerie Plame was allegedly leaked illegally to political columnist Robert Novak.
Then-Attorney General John Ashcroft named federal prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald as the special counsel in the Plame case. Fitzgerald came highly recommended by Deputy Attorney General James B. Comey.
State Department official Richard Armitage actually passed the name to Novak. Armitage was never charged for giving the name and neither was anyone else.
President Bush commuted Libby’s sentence but refused to issue a full pardon.
“Shame on George Bush for not having done it. Scooter Libby had nothing to do with leaking anything as we now know,” said Toensing. “George Bush would not give him a pardon to Dick Cheney’s eternal chagrin.”
“It was just so unfair and unjust in our system that his prosecution even occurred,” said Toensing, who says the facts of the case were clear long before Fitzgerald was ever appointed.
“They knew from the get-go, from day one, that Dick Armitage had leaked the information. If that had been a crime, why didn’t they just prosecute Dick Armitage?
“This was a whole case about going after Dick Cheney and the Iraq War. This was a whole political prosecution about the Iraq War,” said Toensing.
Toensing says the only reason Libby was prosecuted is because Libby would not turn on Cheney, whom Libby served as chief of staff.
“Before indictment, Scooter’s lawyer was told that if (Libby) just provided criminal information about Dick Cheney, this whole thing would go away,” said Toensing.
And what was Libby convicted of?
“Scooter was indicted on just a ‘he said-he said.’ It’s as if you said something happened on Tuesday and I said Wednesday and then and they decided to indict Scooter just because he differed. He differed with three witnesses,” said Toensing.
Libby’s conviction was ripe for pardon after the testimony of journalist Matt Cooper did not match his own notes and reporter Judith Miller recanted her testimony after she discovered her testimony was incorrect as a result of Fitzgerald refusing to share evidence with her. The third witness, Tim Russert, died in 2008.
Toensing says it’s clear between the Fitzgerald and Mueller probes that the special counsel should be abolished.
“I don’t think any is good. I didn’t think Ken Starr was good. It’s just out of hand and there’s no control,” said Toensing.
She says the Justice Department is doing the public no favors either. She says the mandate Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein gave to Robert Mueller is stunningly broad and allows him to investigate “any link between the Russian government and anyone involved with the Trump campaign.”
“That means a farmer in Iowa who sells rice to Russia and was co-chairman of the Trump campaign could be investigated because he had a link with the Russian government and the Trump campaign. That’s it. It’s despicable,” said Toensing.
Kim Really Ready to Give Up Nukes? Starbucks Training Session, Stingy de Blasio
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are glad to see South Korea’s president say North Korea is ready to give up nukes with no conditions, but wonder whether this is yet another ruse from Pyongyang. They also wonder why 175,000 Starbucks employees need racial sensitivity training because of a high-profile controversy at one franchise. And Jim has the perfect charity in mind for New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio after tax returns show the mayor and his wife donated just $350 to charity in 2017.
‘I Think That Was Outstanding’
Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Tom McInerney is applauding the Trump administration for building a coalition to strike Syria and carrying out a successful attack, but he says solving the long-term challenges there requires collaboration with Russia and that cannot happen so long as Special Counsel Robert Mueller continues his probe.
On Friday night (early Saturday in Syria), the U.S., along with Great Britain and France, fired dozens of missiles at three specific targets in Syria in response for the chemical weapons attack that took place several days earlier.
As McInerney suspected last week, President Trump took longer to order a response in order to build international support and participation. He’s thrilled our allies took part and says the cooperation extended beyond London and Paris.
“I think that was outstanding. Having those two partners is extremely important. In addition, we had other partners. We fired (some) missiles from the Red Sea that went over Saudi Arabia and other locations. So we had other, de facto partners as well, which is equally important,” said McInerney.
He’s also thrilled with the results of the mission.
“We got three important targets, one of them in Damascus, which was their research and development center for chemical weapons and a very important target. We took that out as well as two other targets, one a production and the other a storage facility,” said McInerney.
The U.S. fired 105 missiles, primarily cruise missiles, and none were shot down, contrary to assertions from the Syrian government.
Last week, McInerney recommended wiping out the Syrian air force if the U.S. was convinced the Assad regime was responsible for the chemical attack. He says coalition building made that impossible.
“When we went for the allies to be participating with us, that put time in the equation. That meant the Syrian air force moved a lot of their assets in with the Russians…because they knew we wouldn’t strike anything with the Russians in it,” said McInerney.
Trump telegraphed the attack in various tweets and public statements last week, but McInerney says it’s clear the administration was communicating with Moscow long before the missiles started flying.
“They were well aware of it. They elected to let us go in and do it. I think that was the right move.
“There’s a lot of talk going on about what they’re going to do to retaliate, etc. But I think the Russians got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, so they didn’t want to see what President Trump was going to do and the other allies. Getting the UK and the French involved was a very important decision,” said McInerney.
Despite the strong Russian denunciation of any response, McInerney believes Russia is smart enough not to overreact.
“You can never tell but I really believe that President Putin does not want to have a direct confrontation down there. He doesn’t have nearly the size of the forces we have, and he certainly doesn’t want to open the door for others to go in.” he said.
McInerney says solving the problems involving Syria, the Kurds, the Free Syrian Army, ISIS, and other radical groups like the Al-Nusra Front is deeply complicated, but he says working constructively with Russia is a big part of the solution.
“We need to get an accommodation. The only way there’s going to be an accommodation over there in Syria – and it’s going to be divided up – is with the U.S. and Russia agreeing to work together,” said McInerney.
“That’s why the Mueller investigation that’s going on right now is impacting our national security. I believe the Republican Congress ought to close that operation down. The only collusion was between the Democratic Party and the Hillary Clinton campaign with Russia. Yet, the Obama administration concocted the idea that the Trump [campaign] were the ones colluding,” said McInerney.
If the U.S. and Russia were to carve up Syria, what ought to be the greatest priorities? McInerney says President Obama’s inaction opened the door for Russian intervention and has made it next to impossible to remove Bashar al-Assad. He believes we have no choice but to allow Russia to keep its bases there.
He says the top goal should be limiting Iranian influence in the region.
“We need stability in the region. We do not want to have a Shia Crescent that sweeps from Iran, through Iraq, through Syria, and to the Mediterranean. That is not in the interest of the free world,” said McInerney.
Scooter Libby Pardon Coming? Comey & Trump Trade Insults, Comey’s 2016 Admission
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome the news that Scooter Libby, the chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, may soon be pardoned by President Trump and have his convictions from the Valerie Plame fiasco scrubbed from the record. Jim and Greg don’t excuse Libby’s conduct in the investigation but point out there never should have been an investigation since there was no underlying crime. They also roll their eyes as excerpts from James Comey’s new book slam Trump as being shorter than expected, wearing his ties too long and using tanning goggles, while Trump tweets that Comey is an “untruthful slimeball.” And they react to Comey’s admission that he revealed the re-opening of the Hillary Clinton email probe because he was sure she would win the election anyway and might not have done so if he thought Trump could actually win.
McInerney: Russia Probe Makes Syria Policy Much Tougher
Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. General Tom McInerney suspects any response to apparent chemical attacks in Syria may be on hold while the Trump administration tries to build a coalition for any action and he says solving the problem in Syria is much more difficult because partisan sniping over Russia is hampering our ability to find common diplomatic ground with Moscow.
Earlier in the week, reports suggested a military response could come by the end of the week. On Thursday, President Trump made it clear a more deliberate approach may be in the works.
“Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!” tweeted Trump.
McInerney says there is likely a very good reason for a delayed response.
“I think his national security advisers have advised him to get a coalition involved with this, to include the UK, French, perhaps the Jordanians, the Egyptians, Israelis, Saudis and Emirates – a coalition of the willing that can represent a very broad front,” said McInerney.
“When you have a coalition like this, it means they’re all in agreement and they’re willing to use their forces. And you have Arab forces. I believe it’s important to use Arab forces,” he said. “It makes us define the problem more.”
McInerney says another critical element is to confirm the chemical attack actually came from the Syrian government.
“We’ve got to confirm with the most precise accuracy that it was the Assad regime that did this. The reason I say that is because Al-Nusra was looking for chlorine stocks a number of months ago and it would be in their interest to want to keep the U.S. involved and for the U.S. to attack the Assad forces,” said McInerney.
He says there may be an easy way to determine blame in this case.
“Was it an airplane with barrel bombs or was it an IED? Because we know the Al-Nusra forces do not have aircraft,” said McInerney, who adds that U.S.-led surveillance ought to provide critical evidence on whether the attack came from the air, although it may take time to comb through the intelligence.
If Assad is responsible, McInerney favors a big response?
“I think we need to eliminate his air force. Is that difficult to do? Yes, it is, because he has moved his forces on Russian bases with Iranians. I’m not worried about killing Iranians. I think they need to be pushed back and of course the Israelis are very concerned about this Shia Crescent that is sweeping across,” said McInerney.
In addition to the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians, U.S. policy must also consider how any action impacts the Kurds, ISIS, the Free Syrian Army and other groups in the area.
McInerney says the complexity of the issue is immense, and he says it’s now far more complicated because of the ongoing Russia probes here in the U.S.
“Because the Democratic Party laid out this false narrative, this fake news about Russian collusion, it has soured the diplomatic relations with the U.S. and Russia. It’s difficult to communicate with them in a reasonable way.
“That’s why the Mueller investigation must be terminated as quickly as possible. Clearly Russia is a great power. Still, it’s got lots of nuclear weapons which concern us. They are modernizing their nuclear forces, and we do not want to let this get out of control,” said McInerney.
McInerney says the region is also more complex as a result of the Obama administration pulling the U.S. out of Iraq entirely and failing to honor the red line it set for chemical weapon use in Syria.
“Unfortunately, because of Obama’s ineptness, he helped create the vacuum that the Russians were able to move in on,” said McInerney.
China Blinks on Trade, Feds vs. Cohen, FBI Vets Sour on Comey
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are glad to see China made some minor concessions on auto tariffs and intellectual property issues in the wake of tariff battles with the U.S. They also discuss the FBI raid on Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and what it means, if anything, for the larger Mueller probe. And Jim discusses his new column, which reveals that former FBI personnel who once thought well of former director James Comey are now very critical of Comey’s embrace of a political role that casts him as a hero and a martyr.