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Nuclear Weapons

North Korea Deal Possible if Trump Keeps Pressure On

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South Korea’s president says North Korea is ready to scrap its nuclear weapons program with virtually no conditions, but a leading expert on North Korea says President Trump must keep the heat on Kim Jong Un and China to get a deal worth signing.

Gordon Chang, author of “Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World,” also says the South Korean president might be a bigger stumbling block to an acceptable deal than Kim is.

Optimism is on the upswing for the upcoming summit between Trump and Kim after South Korean President Moon Jae-in publicly indicated that North Korea is prepared to give up its nuclear program.

“I don’t think denuclearization has different meanings for South and North Korea. The North is expressing a will for a complete denuclearization,” Moon said Thursday, according to Reuters.

“They have not attached any conditions that the U.S. cannot accept, such as the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. All they are talking about is the end of hostile policies against North Korea, followed by a guarantee of security,” added Moon.

Kim has said very little publicly, but Chang still sees an opportunity for something significant to happen in the Trump-Kim talks.

“We should be cautiously optimistic that President Trump, if he wants to exert American power, can perhaps bring a very good outcome to the Korean Peninsula,” said Chang.

“This provides the opportunity for a breakthrough.  I’m sure Kim Jong Un doesn’t want to give up his most destructive weapons and won’t do it unless there’s severe pressure, but President Trump is in a position to apply that pressure,” said Chang.

According to Chang, Kim is rattled by Trump’s policies and personnel choices, and that may mean he’s ready to make major concessions.

“He doesn’t want the the U.S. to strike his nuclear or his missile facilities.  You now have John Bolton as national security adviser, who made some very hawkish statements when he was a Fox News contributor.  I’m sure that’s unnerving Kim and probably the Chinese as well,” said Chang, who believes the pain of sanctions is a factor here as well.

“I do think that our sanctions campaign has been working.  There were reports, for instance, from South Korea that North Korea could run out of foreign exchange reserves by October.  That’s maybe a little bit optimistic but, nonetheless, we do know they’re running out of money.

“And we’re also hearing from the Chinese that Office #39, which is the Kim family slush fund, is low on cash.  There’s a lot of information that corroborates the view that Kim actually needs sanctions relief,” said Chang.

Chang believes Trump should meet with Kim but should crank up the pressure even more.  He also hopes Trump allies pressure on China.

“In the last month, Beijing has done some things which are really disturbing, in violating the UN sanctions openly.  So we need to put some pressure on the Chinese right now to make sure that Kim understands that President Trump is willing to go not only against him but also against China,” said Chang.

Even more encouraging for Chang than North Korea’s reported willingness to give up its nukes is the mindset President Trump says he is taking into the meeting with Kim.

“President Trump said something significant on Wednesday at his joint press conference with Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister.  He said he’s willing to walk away, and that’s absolutely critical.  If you’re willing to walk away, you can get a good deal,” said Chang.

He says the biggest mistake the Obama administration made in negotiating the Iran nuclear deal was to make it clear the U.S. was eager for a deal.

However, the biggest stumbling block to forcing Kim’s hand may be South Korea.  Moon is desperate to achieve unity on the Korean peninsula, and that may play to Kim’s favor.

“We’ve got to be more concerned about Moon Jae-in than we do about Kim Jong Un.  We know that Kim is an out-and-out villain.  I think we need to view Moon in a very suspicious light, especially because of the things he has done to undermine the United States and also because of what he wants to do,” said Chang.

North Korea’s overarching objective is to conquer South Korea and Chang says Moon and his sympathetic allies in Seoul are doing some of Kim’s work for him.

“He’s got a willing partner in Moon Jae-in, who is trying to amend the South Korean constitution to make it more compatible with North Korea.  Moon has a lot of senior advisers who, in their college days, were openly pro-North Korean and today they won’t disavow those earlier positions,” said Chang.

 

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are glad to see South Korea’s president say North Korea is ready to give up nukes with no conditions, but wonder whether this is yet another ruse from Pyongyang.  They also wonder why 175,000 Starbucks employees need racial sensitivity training because of a high-profile controversy at one franchise.  And Jim has the perfect charity in mind for New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio after tax returns show the mayor and his wife donated just $350 to charity in 2017.

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North Korea Able to Reach Entire U.S. Within Months

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Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton says North Korea has no intention of scrapping its nuclear program, is trying to sucker the United States into relaxing sanctions, and is now just months away from being able to deploy nuclear weapons capable of reaching any point in the United States.

Earlier this week, South Korea trumpeted the news that North Korea is allegedly willing to suspend nuclear testing in exchange for direct talks with the United States and may even be open to ending its nuclear program altogether.

Bolton doesn’t believe a word of it.

“The North Koreans have been conducting an absolutely masterful propaganda campaign, beginning with their participation in the Winter Olympics,” said Bolton.

But he says the true objective is clear.

“The only thing they’re trying to do is get us to abandon the pressure that we’re putting on them and hopefully foreswear the possible use of military force, which nobody wants but nobody wants North Korea with nuclear weapons either.  That’s what this is about,” said Bolton.

Bolton says the North Koreans are on the verge of posing a very real danger to every part of the United States.

“They are very close to achieving their long-sought objective of deliverable nuclear weapons.  CIA Director Mike Pompeo said recently that the North was within a “handful” of months – his phrase, a handful of months – of being able to land a thermonuclear weapon on any target in the United States they want,” said Bolton.

However, Bolton says this is not merely a distraction to buy time.  He believes the big stick approach from the Trump administration is working.

“I think the North, finally figuring out that Barack Obama is no longer president, is worried about what Donald Trump might do.  So their response is to throw up a lot of smoke and dust in the air and hope to divert our attention, first with the Olympics and now with this supposed offer to sit down,” said Bolton.

Bolton is adamant that North Korea has zero interest in actually making nice with the U.S. or South Korea and says the proof can be seen in our recent history.

“They’ve made commitments four separate times in international agreements to give up their nuclear weapons program.

“Four times they’ve lied about it.  Does history ever mean anything?  If you’ve negotiated with somebody for 25 years and failed to get agreement, what possible reason is there to think they’d agree in year 26,” said Bolton.

So what will deter North Korea?  Bolton says we’re facing a series of difficult options.  He outright rejects former National Security Adviser Susan Rice’s recommendation for the world simply to accept North Korea as a nuclear power, but hopes the solutions can come through engagement with China.

“There’s really only one diplomatic play left here and that’s trying to convince China either to do what they uniquely have the capability of doing, overthrowing the regime in North Korea and putting in something that’s at least vaguely more reasonable, or working with us for the reunification of the Korean peninsula,” said Bolton.

And while he hopes to avoid it, Bolton says the military option must be considered.

“The other things we have to look at is the potential to use military force against the regime’s program to make sure that they don’t endanger us and our allies in South Korea and Japan.  Neither of these options is very attractive, but that’s where we are after 25 years of failure,” said Bolton.

But one of those allies is also contributing to the problem.  South Korean President Moon Jae-in is a strong advocate of reunification with North Korea and Bolton says Moon is actually strengthening the regime that wants to conquer him.

“There’s a compassionate, humanitarian argument here.  Many South Koreans have family in the North.  But the fact is the North is a 25 million-person prison camp.  It’s not going to treat its people humanely.  It’s going to take the subsidies and use them for its own purposes,” said Bolton.

He says South Korea’s generosity was fully exploited by North Korea at the Winter Olympics.

“South Korea actually paid for the North to participate, one more series of subsidies to keep the Kim Jong-Un regime in power, unfortunately by our allies in Seoul,” said Bolton.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America very warily approach the reports of North Korea supposedly being willing to scrap its nuclear program in exchange for security guarantees.  While fully aware that Kim Jong-Un may only be looking to bait us or stall for time, they are hopeful that the tougher approach from the Trump administration is starting to pay off.  They also wince as Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri emerges in a new video urging jihadists to stop fighting with each other and focus on a common enemy.  And they react with bemusement and concern as former Trump campaign official Sam Nunberg appears on several cable news shows to announce he is defying the subpoena from Special Counsel Robert Mueller, only to later admit he will probably cooperate.

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Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America focus on North Korea today, in light of the recent news that the isolated nation now has the technology to put a nuclear warhead inside one of its missiles and is now threatening a strike on Guam.  With such a development, Jim says, we may have to begin looking at the the possibility of accepting North Korea as a nuclear power, Jim and Greg discuss the unpalatable downsides to that.  They examine the statements President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson regarding North Korea, as Trump promises “fury and fire” and Tillerson says that’s the only language that Kim Jong-Un understands.  Jim also delves into the history of the past three presidential administrations and their failures to keep North Korea fee of nukes.

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