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Placation vs. Change in Iran

August 6, 2018 by GregC

http://dateline.radioamerica.org/podcast/8-6-nash-blog.mp3

The Trump administration began reapplying economic sanctions against Iran Monday, the latest consequence of President Trump withdrawing the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal.

Trump withdrew the U.S. as a signatory of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May, and the new round of sanctions is the first of two rounds of crippling sanctions designed to deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons and grant more liberties to its people.

“There’s the difference between the Obama administration and the Trump administration.  The Obama administration was trying to placate.  The Trump administration is trying to actually change Iranian behavior,” said retired U.S. Navy Captain Chuck Nash, who is also a Fox News military analyst.

This first tranche of sanctions forbids the importing of Iranian carpets, pistachios, and also voids licenses that allows Iran to buy American and European-made aircraft.  Another round of sanctions targeting oil and banks is set to take effect Nov. 4.

European leaders are furious with Trump for bringing the sanctions back, but Nash says they have little choice but to go along.

“They were looking to sell a tremendous amount of goods to Iran.  Those deals, now that the United States has pulled out, the administration has basically said, ‘Would you like to do business with the United States or would you like to do business with Tehran?  Pick one,'” said Nash.

And Nash says the Europeans could not circumvent the sanctions even if they wanted to.

“Look at aircraft for example.  There is so much United States technology in aircraft that there isn’t an aircraft manufacturer in the western world who can export to Tehran if the United States pulls the licenses for its technology.  It’s embedded in those platforms,” said Nash.

Nash says the sanctions are also meant to make life uncomfortable for another group inside Iran.

“That impacts the bazaaris, which is the mercantile class inside of Iran,” said Nash.  “They are the big supporters of the theocratic regime.”

Nash says the bazaaris were key allies of Ayatollah Khomeini during the Islamic Revolution of 1978-1979.  But he says if the bazaaris feel the heat, the mullahs will also be sweating.

“When they start shifting because they’re under pressure, if things really start to happen, you’ll get the mullahs’ attention,” said Nash, who notes the Iranian economy is already hurting badly.

“In the last year alone, their currency, the rial, has lost 80 percent of its value.  Things have been going south in Iran for years,” said Nash.

He says the mullahs are sure to blame the renewed sanctions for the economic misery in Iran, but Nash doesn’t think the people will believe them.

“The mullahs are trying to tell the people, ‘No, no, no.  It’s not our gross mismanagement.  It’s not our spending money on militarization instead of working on infrastructure and other things in the economy.  No, no, no.  It’s the Americans pulling out of the deal.’  And the people aren’t buying it,” said Nash.

Nash says the Iranian leadership has funneled valuable resources into the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which pledges allegiance not to the government but to the Islamic Revolution, similar to how the SS pledged fidelity to Adolf Hitler instead of the nation.  That, in addition to the weak economy, is sparking large protests against the the regime.

Nash says Iranian leaders may soon have to make a very tough decision.

“The mullahs are probably going to be able to keep the lid on this but for how much longer?  And that’s the equation they have to balance.  ‘Can we really let the United States move on to the Nov. 4  exercise of sanctions, which would be the second tranche, where they then put sanctions against our banking industry and our energy sector?’

“When that happens, that could spell doom for the mullahs inside of Tehran,” said Nash.

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Filed Under: News & Politics, Podcasts Tagged With: inspections, Iran, mullahs, Nash, news, obama, sanctions, Trump

Iran Protests Swell: ‘The Unrest is Everywhere’

January 2, 2018 by GregC

http://dateline.radioamerica.org/podcast/1-2-jafarzadeh-blog.mp3

The popular uprising engulfing Iran is growing bigger by the day and base of unrest dwarfs even the massive protests we saw in 2009, according to a key figure in the Iranian resistance movement.

The protests began Thursday in Mashad, Iran’s second largest city, and spread like wildfire to 80 different cities.  The ensuing government response has led to the deaths of at least 20 people.

“It’s growing every day, both in terms of the level of anger that you can see displayed by the population but also how rapidly it’s spreading,” said Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of the Resistance of Iran.  The NCRI has played a critical role in uncovering Iran’s nuclear ambitions and violations of nuclear agreements.

Jafarzadeh says the protests have a strong foundation in economic animus towards the autocratic regime in Tehran, led by Ayatollah Ali Khameini and President Hassan Rouhani.

“The whole issue of the rise in cost of living and government corruption effects everybody.  In 2009, it was mostly the middle class and the intellectuals.  Now, the unrest is everywhere.  You’re talking about the poor, the workers, the impoverished, those who really have nothing else to lose,” said Jafarzadeh.

Corruption is a major factor as well.  Jafarzadeh says a number of “spooky” operations sponsored by the government encouraged Iranians to invest in plans which guaranteed high returns.  Instead, the Iranians who invested lost big and their frustrations were compounded by watching the mullahs funnel huge amounts of money to Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.

He says the people have simply had enough.

“The people feel there is really no solution for any of their problems – either economic problems or the repression they’ve been facing – other than changing the regime,” said Jafarzadeh.

In addition, the Iran people are no longer buying the notion that Iranian President Rouhani is some kind of reformer or significantly different at all than the hard-line mullahs.

“The common denominator to all the slogans in various cities is, ‘Death to Khamenei.  Death to Rouhani,’ rejecting both factions within the regime – the so-called reformers and the hard-liners.  In some cases, they were specifically chanting, ‘Reformers, hardliners, the game is now over,'” said Jafarzadeh.

“I think this put an end to this myth that there are some moderate elements within the Iranian regime and that if you reach out to them, empower them or negotiate with them and give them what they want then things will go in the right direction.  The population rejected that entirely with these extensive demonstrations,” said Jafarzadeh.

But it’s not just the depth of of the revolt in Iran that’s different than in 2009, Jafarzadeh also says the regime’s response is very different this time compared to 2009.

“The regime is in big disarray.  Each faction is trying to put the blame on the other faction.  The dissatisfaction is actually affecting some of the people within the ranks of the security forces, which is unprecedented,” said Jafarzadeh, noting some troops sent to quell protests have switched sides and joined the demonstrators.

He says the Iranian government also appears torn about how to respond to the protests in general, with both brutal repression and holding back both seen as fueling the protests rather than hastening their end.

And something else is very different: the American response.  Jafarzadeh says President Obama looked the other way when the Iranian people were begging for help in 2009.

“President Obama didn’t side with the demonstrators and didn’t say any words that would be supportive of them.  He basically waited until the demonstrations were crushed so he could go back to negotiations,” said Jafarzadeh.

President Trump has taken a very different approach in a series of tweets.

“Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!” Trump tweeted on Monday morning.

“The people of Iran are finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime. All of the money that President Obama so foolishly gave them went into terrorism and into their “pockets.” The people have little food, big inflation and no human rights. The U.S. is watching!” Trump added on Tuesday.

Jafarzadeh says that makes a huge difference.

“President Trump has publicly said that he’s standing on the side of the people.  The president has been tweeting repeatedly since day one,” he said.

And how does U.S. encouragement make a difference in the outcome?

“You want to show the protesters that they’re not alone,” said Jafarzadeh, noting that outside support is just as important as maintaining domestic intensity for the protests.

“They’re connected with the rest of the world.  The world is actually watching them.  The world actually cares about them.  The world actually stands on their side, not just in terms of the sentiment but also does practical things that will make a difference,” said Jafarzadeh.

Specifically, Jafarzadeh would like to see President Trump declare Iranian leaders as human rights violators and slap new sanctions on the regime for restricting internet access in an attempt to suffocate the demonstrations.  He also urges the U.S. to forge a close alliance with the MEK resistance group, which is organizing the protests and is ideologically similar to the NCRI.

Jafarzadeh says the biggest thing is forcing the issue sooner rather than later.

“We need to act quickly .  This cannot and should not take very long.  We need to act very quickly and talk about days instead of months.  The sooner the world acts, the less violence and the better the prospects for success,” said Jafarzadeh.

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Filed Under: News & Politics, Podcasts Tagged With: Iran, Khamenei, MEK, mullahs, news, protests, Rouhani, Trump

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