Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are very cautiously optimistic about tax reform getting done after the Senate Budget Committee approved the Senate bill and several of the likely holdouts now seem ready to pass it. They’re also concerned following the latest North Korean missile test, which seems to indicate the communist regime could hit the U.S. mainland with a nuclear-armed ICBM. And they react to NBC firing longtime “Today” host Matt Lauer over sexually inappropriate actions.
missiles
Guam Stays Calm, Kim’s Dangerous Dance, Pointless Poll & Ridiculous Response
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud Guam Gov. Eddie Calvo for pointing out that nuclear threats from North Korea are no big news for the tiny island, and that Americans there should go about their business as they would on any other day. However, Jim and Greg still have some reservations about the idea of North Korea firing missiles designed to land just 20 miles off Guam’s shores. And they throw up their hands in reaction to a new survey showing that more than half of Republicans would support postponing the 2020 elections if President Trump wanted to assure that only eligible voters took part. They are exasperated both at the response and for pollsters asking a worthless hypothetical question in the first place.
Trump’s ‘Unfortunate Decision’ on Iran
President Trump made an “unfortunate mistake” by re-certifying the Iran nuclear deal on Wednesday and he was pushed into a decision he didn’t want to make through the power of an entrenched government bureaucracy, according to former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton.
On Monday, after almost an hour of animated debate with his national security team, President Trump reluctantly declared that Iran is complying with the terms with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, hammered out by the Obama admnistration, Iran, and five other nations.
“It was an unfortunate decision for the administration to issue this certification,” said Bolton. “I think the president was blindsided by the bureaucracy.”
Bolton, who served in the State Department during the first term of the George W. Bush administration, says the foreign policy bureaucracy is a powerful force in Washington.
“It was the bureaucracy on autopilot from the Obama administration. If you don’t tell them to change direction, they just keep doing what they were doing before,” said Bolton.
But it’s not just Obama holdovers pushing the status quo. Reports confirm that Defense Secretary James Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford all pleaded with Trump to re-certify the agreement.
Bolton says the bureaucracy has a way of winning over new cabinet members to embrace existing policy.
“The bureaucracies have a way of capturing the appointees. Some of those (Trump officials) are still in the bureaucracy or never really left it. It’s an art form. People who know Washington, particularly who have watched the State Department seduce political appointees, especially Republicans and they make reasonable-sounding arguments that are simply justifications for continuing the prior policy,” said Bolton.
The Iran deal has now been re-certified twice in the first six months of the Trump administration. Each time, the official recognition of Iranian compliance has been accompanied by a Trump administration denunciation of Iran’s human rights record and sponsoring of terrorism.
Bolton says the disconnect is jarring.
“It’s a committee camel that came out and it reflects the confusion that happens when you don’t give the president options and when you don’t allow time for a full debate. Those mistakes will not be made again,” said Bolton, who firmly believes Trump will not certify the agreement again.
Those who applauded the decision to re-certify say abrogating the deal would create a great deal of chaos, particularly with our allies who were part of the negotiations with Iran.
Bolton doesn’t think that should be a deterrent from doing the right thing.
“If the allies are going to be upset by something, what you do is a vigorous diplomatic campaign to explain why we think the deal was a mistake, indeed why they made the same mistake we did, and why we’ve got to correct it before it’s too late,” said Bolton.
“The consequences of a bad deal are a regime of religious fanatics in Iran getting nuclear weapons,” said Bolton.
Bolton says the problems with the JCPOA are legion, starting with the painfully unclear language that he says Iran can manipulate and insist it is meeting its obligations.
“Many provisions of the deal are so badly worded, they’re so ambiguous, that a reasonable person could say, ‘The Iranians came right up to the line of their interpretation of the deal and they didn’t cross it so it’s hard to say it’s really a violation.’ That’s the argument,” said Bolton.
“That argument fails for several reasons. First off, the fact that the agreement is badly worded is one more reason to junk it. It shows just how poorly our negotiators, including Secretary of State John Kerry, did. It shows the leeway that it affords Iran. And it shows the way forward. They’re going to press the ambiguities right to the outer limit,” said Bolton.
And he expects Iran to eventually blow right past those limits.
“If they can hide what they’re doing, they’re going to press beyond the outer limits and make it impossible to enforce the deal strictly. That’s part of the problem. The deal is so bad that trying to enforce it strictly is like trying to nail jello to the wall,” said Bolton, while also nothing the deal offers no inspections of Iranian nuclear sites and has no binding provisions concerning ballistic missile development.
Bolton says the bottom line is that nothing has changed as a result of this agreement.
“Iran has never abandoned its policy to get deliverable nuclear weapons. It’s exploiting this deal. It’s made temporary, easily-reversible concessions. It’s cooperating with North Korea, which is getting ever closer to its own deliverable nuclear weapons capability,” said Bolton.
“We’re living in a delusion if we think this deal is slowing Iran down,” he added.
So what is the right U.S. posture? Bolton says the U.S. bring back economic sanctions immediately and be prepared to do whatever needs to be done to prevent Iran from being able to deploy nukes.
“To be realistic, if we don’t want Iran to have deliverable nuclear weapons, if that’s really what we believe, we and Israel have to look at a military option,” said Bolton.
Missile Test Success
The U.S. successfully tested a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or T-H-A-A-D system Tuesday. According to Fox News, the test took place over Alaska and marks the 14th successful launch of this system. T-H-A-A-D systems are designed to intercept short and intermediate range missiles, and the process is described as “shooting down a bullet with another bullet”. This success comes on the heels of last week’s North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missile launch. Officials are pleased with the results of the test and the personnel conducting it. ~Sarah Schutte
Scope of Iranian Missile Program Exposed
Iranian ballistic missile tests are seen as blatant evidence that the regime there continues to pursue nuclear weapons and the Iranian resistance is now detailing the scope and aggressiveness of the missile program.
On Tuesday, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, or NCRI, unveiled new evidence to explain that far from Iran ratcheting down it’s threat to the Middle East and the world, it has been accelerating its effort ever since it became clear the West was committed to making a deal back in 2015.
“Tehran had decided (before the the nuclear deal was finalized) to step up their efforts on the missile side of their rogue behavior, namely expanding both the production of the missiles but their readiness to deploy them and make them operational,” said Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the NCRI’s U.S. office.
Jafarzadeh says the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, is taking a bigger role in the missile program through the Aerospace Force.
“It used to be called the Air Force of the IRGC, basically having helicopters control airports and all of that. Since a few years ago, they changed the whole structure into Aerospace Force, meaning the dominance is with the missile program. Most of their work is the expansion of the missile program,” said Jafarzadeh.
The new report, gathered through intelligence sources in Iran who are hostile to the regime, shows a vast network of facilities working on the missile program.
“We managed to identify, so far, 42 different locations around the country that are dedicated to their missile program, and they include sites that are engaged in the design, production, testing, and launching their missiles,” said Jafarzadeh.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal did not force Iran to make any concessions with respect to ballistic missiles, but Jafarzadeh says the current efforts do violate United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran missile development.
He also asserts that the revelations expose violations of the nuclear deal since many of the ballistic missiles only serve one purpose – to carry nuclear warheads.
“One of the troubling things we found out during our investigation was that there was a direct connection between the nuclear weapons program of Iran and their missile program. These are not two separate entities,” said Jafarzadeh.
Jafarzadeh says one of the bases on the list, Semnan, is a smoking gun of collaboration between the nuclear weapons program and the advancement of missile capability. He says the agency tasked with weaponizing nukes, STND, is joined at the hip with the missile program at Semnan.
“We found out that every week there is a high-level delegation from STND going from Tehran to Semnan, doing some activities and coming back. So that’s a very troubling thing,” he said.
He also says the new intelligence sheds even more light on just how cozy Iran is with North Korea.
“The other element we found out was the extensive connection and collaboration between North Korea and Iran on their missile programs, to the extent that North Korean experts, when they travel to Iran to help the missile program, they stay at the private residence area that the regime has allocated for the North Koreans. They don’t check into some hotel,” said Jafarzadeh.
“Vice versa, the Iranian missile experts travel to North Korea and spend time and exchange ideas and views and expertise,” he added.
The locations of these missile bases are also very suspicious, according to Jafarzadeh.
“Most of the sites focusing on production were in the central part of the country near Tehran. All the sites related to launching and operations were either on the western border of the country, which brings them closer to their targets in Europe and the western side of the world, or the southern part of the country near the Persian Gulf,” said Jafarzadeh.
“That makes the Iran regime much more accessible to the Persian Gulf countries, making very clear the objective of their entire missile program. It’s not for defensive purposes. This is meant to intimidate. This is meant to dominate,” he said.
“And most importantly, on top of all of these things, it is meant to give the Iranian regime the ability to build the bomb and to be able to carry it. That is to say building a nuclear warhead. That is their ultimate objective,” said Jafarzadeh.
Three Martini Lunch 3/7/17
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America discuss the Trump administration’s new executive order temporarily banning travel from six nations with major terrorism problems. They also react to North Korea announcing its latest missile tests were designed to strike U.S. bases in Japan. And they slam teachers in Alexandria, Virginia, for forcing the cancellation of school because 300 of them plan to attend the anti-Trump women’s march.
Three Martini Lunch 2/13/17
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America groan as trust issues arise around National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. They also discuss the latest North Korean missile launch and whether there is a good strategy for confronting Kim Jong-Un. And they shake their heads as liberal comedian Sarah Silverman mistakes utility line markings as swastikas, just the latest episode in SJW hysteria.
Three Martini Lunch 1/30/17
Greg Corombos of Radio America and David French of National Review discuss President Trump’s orders seeking to reduce federal regulations. They also say Trump is on the right track with his refugee policy but did not implement it well, and they unload on the hysterical left-wing reaction to the policy. And they practice their shocked faces as Iran defies the United Nations and tests a ballistic missile – the ones that carry nuclear warheads.