Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are appalled as the liberals on “The View” and elsewhere blast Vice President Pence for not standing as the joint Korean Olympic team entered the opening ceremonies, but they are grateful that many on the left are allowing America to see that they actually hate the Trump administration far more than they hate one of the most repressive and brutal Communist regimes the world has ever seen. They also blast the liberal media for largely ignoring that President Trump’s daughter-in-law had to go to the hospital after opening an envelope with white powder. And they greatly enjoy learning that the Iranians are very worried that western nations are spying on their nuclear activities with lizards.
News & Politics
Kentucky Gov. Details Work Requirements for Medicaid
Last month, the Trump administration gave its blessing for Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin to implement work requirements for some Medicaid recipients, and while his critics are predicting this move will result in people needlessly dying, Bevin says it will lead to better health outcomes because more people have a stake in the system.
Bevin’s predecessor, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, embraced Medicaid expansion as President Obama’s health law took effect. However, Bevin says that decision did not result in better health care for the people in Kentucky.
“The whole purpose of having health coverage is to, ultimately, allow people to have better health outcomes. What we have seen is through the expansion of Medicaid we actually have fewer doctors, not more, that will even see Medicaid patients, which means that we’ve made access to health care less possible, even though more people are covered,” said Bevin.
Bevin says just adding people to Medicaid isn’t even an upgrade for those who had no coverage prior to Obamacare taking effect and Kentucky agreeing to expand Medicaid.
“Studies that have been done have shown that people with Medicaid access in some instances have lesser health outcomes, at best equivalent health outcomes to people with no coverage at all. That’s a pretty sobering fact,” said Bevin.
And he says the short-term evaluation of health in Kentucky is seeing no improvement.
“Kentucky leads the nation in many health categories that we would not want to: diabetes, lung cancer, premature death, hypertension, cardiac arrest, and cardiovascular disease. These are things we don’t want to lead the nation on and these numbers have only gone up since we’ve expanded Medicaid. This tells us something isn’t working,” said Bevin.
As governor, Bevin says it is his job to make sure taxpayer dollars are providing some value for the people in the commonwealth.
“I’m a big believer in spending the money that we have and not more, being good stewards of the taxpayers’ money because it is our own money. I believe in cutting regulation, simplifying the process. But above all else as it relates to health care and any other policy that comes from government, we have to look at what the return is that we get on investment,” he said.
“So as it relates to this issue and everything else, my approach to governing is to get a good return for the taxpayers on their money and to get results. At the end of the day, that’s what wee should be paying for,” said Bevin.
Bevin says it is clearly in the interest of Kentucky to change its approach to Medicaid, and he wants to make it in the interest of each person in the Bluegrass State.
“If people have a vested interest in something, because they have actively participated in it, then they’re more likely to value it and utilize it. The analogy I’ve often given is for people who have bought their own bicycle. The odds are pretty high that they didn’t leave that bicycle out in the rain. In other words, if you care about something, you’re going to pay better attention to it,” said Bevin.
He is also quick to point out that the new policy applies to a fairly small percentage of Medicaid recipients.
“This doesn’t apply to anybody who is a traditional Medicaid patient: the elderly, the frail, someone who’s pregnant, a child, someone who has a disability, who is addicted to drugs. These are people for whom there is not an expectation. These are people for whom Medicaid was originally designed.
“What it wasn’t designed for is working-aged, able-bodied men and women, people with no dependents, people who could get engaged but for some reason have not. That’s not who this system was designed for so this waiver, this expectation that people work, or volunteer or get training or get education only applies to a small subset of the expanded Medicaid population,” said Bevin.
He estimates that 60 percent of those in the expanded Medicaid pool already comply with the requirements, which is to work, volunteer, train, or get education for 20 hours per week – either all in one area or in a combination of two or more categories.
So what impact could this have in Kentucky?
“As we have done projections, and they are only that, we would expect that five years from now there might be as many as 95,000 current recipients who are no longer needing Medicaid for one of two reasons. A, they have moved their way up and out and that should be the bulk of them. And B, they just don’t want to do anything at all in exchange for something of value,” said Bevin.
Liberal critics are savaging Bevin for pushing work requirements, alleging that people will end up dying because those standards could not be met. In addition to the statistics comparing Medicaid coverage versus no coverage, Bevin points out that grew up in deep poverty and never had health coverage until he joined the military.
He also says Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma articulates his approach to the issue perfectly.
“[She] said that to do other than this is to treat those who are poor with the soft bigotry of low expectations. That is perfectly said.
“I find it offensive that liberals think that poor people can’t do things for themselves and need to be wards of the state. That’s offensive. I find that kind of bigotry to be reprehensible, and in Kentucky, we’re not going to tolerate it. We’re going to give people a better opportunity,” said Bevin.
Trump’s Infrastructure Approach, Media Fawn Over North Korea, CNN & Corker
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are leery in general that any infrastructure bill can avoid becoming a huge waste of money but they are glad to see President Trump asking states to play a major role in funding the plan. They also unload on the mainstream media for writing glowing reviews of Kim Jong-Un’s sister and how she is supposedly executing a diplomatic masterpiece at the Olympics. And they rip the press for falling for the supposedly charming North Korean cheer squad, when they’re really slaves of a regime that will punish them and their families if they make any mistakes. And they roll their eyes at CNN for reporting that Sen. Bob Corker is thinking about reconsidering his retirement, even as Corker’s office says there is nothing to the story.
Protecting Your Kids from Sexual Predators
The explosion of sexual abuse revelations in recent months reveals a much bigger problem than many imagined, and Americans are now far more aware of the sexual abuse of children from cases ranging from Hollywood to disgraced USA Gymnastics Dr. Larry Nassar.
And a career sex crimes prosecutor says parents can play a vital role in preparing kids to recognize lewd behavior and in helping them come forward if abuse has occured.
Stacey Honowitz serves as an assistant state attorney in Florida, specializing in cases of sexual abuse. She is also the author of “My Privates are My Privates,” a book designed to teach young kids about where people should not be touching them.
Honowitz says the litany of allegations of abuse remind us all that sexual predators are not creepy looking guys in trench coats.
“I’ve seen in my 30 years experience that it’s not that stranger. It’s normally somebody that you know. It could be someone in the family. It could be a coach. It could be a rabbi. It could be a priest. Sex crimes really know no boundaries. Anybody can be a predator and anybody can be a victim,” said Honowitz.
In short, it’s often people that we instinctively trust who may feel the most emboldened to act in an illicit way.
“What we find is people who were so trusted are usually master manipulators, because they know that the kids trust them. They know the kids aren’t going to report them. They know the kids have this bond with them. They feel they can manipulate the child so if they do something wrong then that child is never going to come forward,” said Honowitz.
“And that’s what we saw in Nassar. These girls never thought that this elite doctor who was training the Olympic athletes would ever do something and cross the line. So they didn’t know to report it and they didn’t know if something was wrong,” said Honowitz.
That why she says parents must communicate with their kids that any improper touching from anyone is wrong.
“You want tell your kid, ‘Even if you love [the suspected predator], even if you trust them, they can always do something to betray that trust. And you can never feel funny about telling mom or dad or somebody that you feel uncomfortable,’ even if you think to yourself this could never be happening,” said Honowitz.
With an endless array of after-school and weekend extracurricular activities, Honowitz says it is vital for parents to keep an eye out for some telltale signs of trouble, starting with someone who is spending more time than necessary with your kids.
“A lot of parents feel that if someone is taking such an interest in their child that it’s wonderful. And I’m not here to tell you that every coach in the world or every person that’s nice to your kid is a sexual predator because that’s not the case.
“But if you see conversations, text messages, the person wants to take your kid when you’re not around, tells you they’re going to babysit or take them to the movies. If it doesn’t pass the smell test or the relationship is just reeking of something that’s not kosher, you need to ask your kid.
“‘What’s going on? Why are you spending so much time? Why is he giving you presents? Why is he taking you there? Why is he asking if you want him to babysit? Why is he taking you to a practice when you don’t have a practice?'” said Honowitz.
She says seeing the warning signs is not as complicated as some think it is.
“You really just kind of need to be smart. Use your common sense. We all think this is such a major thing and that it’s rocket science. It’s not. It’s common sense to see that someone wants to spend a lot of time with your kid and you’re trying to figure out why,” said Honowitz.
If concerns do arise, Honowitz encourages a clear, unscripted conversation.
“You don’t ever want to say, ‘Step one, tell me what happened. Step two, did he talk to you?’ You don’t want to do it that way. That’s why the conversation needs to start early and very casual,” said Honowitz.
How early should the conversation start? Probably earlier than you’d like it to and earlier than you think it should.
“You have to teach the kids, ‘My Privates are My Privates,’ just like I said in the book and no one is allowed to touch them, even if the person tells you, ‘It’s OK. I need to do it for my job,'” said Honowitz.
And she says teaching kids proper anatomy is also crucial.
“You have to be able to tell them, ‘That’s your private,’ and you have to say it in the terms that are proper. So you don’t want to make up a name for vagina. You don’t want to make up a name for penis. Because you want them to know that this is part of their anatomy and no one can touch them there,” said Honowitz
She urges parents to teach kids those proper names the same time they’re learning where their eyes, nose, hand and feet are. Honowitz also says another good way for parents of young kids to communicate is to tell kids no one may touch them in areas that are covered by their underpants or bathing suit.
When it comes to encouraging kids to tell you if they are being abused, Honowitz says stressing that open line of communication takes a lot of power away form an abuser.
“So many times the perpetrator will say, ‘Listen, if you tell somebody I’m going to do this to you. I’m going to hurt your family. I’m going to hurt you. You’re going to be in trouble.’
“You’ve got to tell the kids, ‘If you feel comfortable enough to tell me, you don’t have to worry. You’ll never be in that position. He’s never going to hurt me. He’s never going to hurt my family. But if you don’t tell me what’s going on, you will be a perpetual victim,'” said Honowitz.
Often times victims and their parents feel powerless if the predator is someone powerful or has a sterling reputation. Honowitz says you’d be surprised what happens once someone comes forward.
“Just like in the gymnastics case, there is strength in numbers. Many times when you feel that your child is going to be the only one it doesn’t work out that way. If your child comes forward, lots of times other people will come forward because someone else has taken that step,” said Honowitz.
If a parent doesn’t know what to believe or has a child who often fails to tell the truth, Honowitz says to always bring the matter to authorities. She says investigators are skilled at determining whether allegations are likely to be true or if a child is being coached by one parent to lie about another in a divorce case or some other scheme is afoot.
However, Honowitz strongly encourages parents to believe your child and let the authorities worry about the investigation. She says dismissing a child’s allegations can do great damage to them.
“If you tell your child you don’t believe them, if that child is being sexually abused you cannot imagine what kind of secrets they have to live with for the rest of their lives.
“We saw it happen in Nassar. We saw one of the fathers didn’t believe his daughter. When everybody started coming forward, he ended up committing suicide because he couldn’t live with the guilt,” said Honowitz.
Good Family Leave Plan, GOP’s Reconciliation Surrender, GOP Mad Paul Tells Truth
Alexandra DeSanctis of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America cheer the family leave plan pushed by Sen. Marco Rubio and Ivanka Trump to allow parents to tap their future Social Security checks to cover the weeks surrounding the birth of a new baby in exchange for waiting extra weeks when they reach retirement. In addition, Alexandra rebuts the liberal insistence that family leave must be a whole new entitlement. They also slam Republicans for effectively surrendering the option to use budget reconciliation for the next two years as part of the horrific budget deal with Democrats. And they fire back at Republican lawmakers who spent Thursday trashing Sen. Rand Paul’s filibuster as a waste of time, when those GOP members are really just mad that Sen. Paul called them out for their blatant hypocrisy on deficit spending and not wanting to take a vote on restoring budget caps.
Brat: Senate ‘Scared of Shadow’ on Spending
Rep. Dave Brat, R-Virginia, is slamming Republican congressional leaders for caving to spending demands by Democrats in a two-year budget bill that he anticipates will spark trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see while Republicans unilaterally surrender their greatest weapon for passing meaningful entitlement, welfare, or health care reforms.
On Wednesday, just one day before another government funding deadline, the Republican and Democratic leaders in the House and Senate announced an agreement to keep operations running for two years, but with a hefty price tag for the American taxpayers.
Republicans who favor the bill are celebrating the lifting of sequester spending caps on national defense. They also included language to repeal the Independent Payment Advisory Board, often referred to as “death panels” in the Affordable Care Act. And they contend there is money well spent on veterans programs, infrastructure, disaster relief, and opioid addition programs.
But Brat says everything is getting more money and the media’s estimate of $300 billion in new spending is actually low.
“It’s actually $400 billion now and wait til you see what policies get plowed into that $400 billion,” said Brat.
The congressman says the House of Representatives addressed appropriations last year, passing a budget that cut spending as well as 12 separate departmental spending bills. He says things fell apart once those bills got sent to the U.S. Senate.
“They failed. They failed on Obamacare. They failed on keeping their word to the American people on being fiscally responsible,” said Brat.
Earlier this week, the House passed a continuing resolution that boosted defense spending but left other levels unchanged.
“The House Freedom Caucus plussed up defense spending. The entire Republican Conference was in favor, plus up the military but nothing else. We were going to stay as a team on that call.
“Then leadership got together and went to the Senate. They need nine Democrats and it morphed into a Democrat bill in five minutes. They plussed it up to $300 billion. When you add in contingency funding, it’s $400 billion,” said Brat.
“When you’ve got (Senate Minority Leader Chuck) Schumer saying this is a great bipartisan bill, and Republicans are in charge of the House, the Senate, and the White House, you might have a problem on your hands,” said Brat, who points out the two-year deal allows the Senate to wash its hands of the issue until late next year.
“The Senate basically doesn’t even want to vote on a budget next year. They’re scared of their shadow,” he said.
Brat is generally positive on Speaker Paul Ryan’s leadership but is not impressed with his actions on this bill.
“We got backed into a trap, but still [Ryan’s] got to take the boxing gloves and put them on and go over their to (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell and say no,” said Brat.
Brat says there’s only one reason why a bill like this gets passed in the GOP-run Congress.
“None of this has to d with rational policy. No one’s in favor of a trillion dollar deficit and so it’s all politics. It’s people protecting their hide and their slot up here . Taking the ‘yes’ vote is the easy vote. Sure, yes, yes, yes to everything. Put it on the credit card and the kids will pay it off. You know, were $21 trillion in debt right now,” said Brat.
And that’s about to get much worse.
“We’re going to have over trillion dollar deficits as far as they eye can see. If you’re a Republican and you’re fine with that, then I don’t get it,” said Brat.
Not only that, the required payments on the interest for the national debt were tamped down in recent years since interest rates were next to nothing. Brat says the markets are facing volatility now because of inflation fears brought on by rising wages. He says the tab to preserve the government’s solvency will also be on the rise.
“That wage inflation set off a signal. Markets are rational and they say, ‘Oh oh, interest rates are going to bump up once wages bump up,'” said Brat.
“We’re going to have inflation, interest rates going up, and then we’ve got to pay off $21 trillion in debt at normal interest rates like three, four, five percent, That’s going to be hugely costly and the market has properly recognized that,” said Brat.
In addition to being awash in red ink, Brat is aghast that GOP leaders effectively handcuffed themselves from getting any major reforms done in the next two years.
“They deemed the budget and gave up our ability to do budget reconciliation again this year in the budget. It’s a huge deal. That’s how we tried to get rid of Obamacare and that’s how we passed the very successful tax cut.
“This year, we were going to work on welfare reform and maybe some mandatory spending programs because they’re a $100 trillion unfunded (liability). Now for some reason e just unilaterally disarmed and gave away our power,” said Brat.
The reconciliation tool allows legislation to pass with a simple majority rather than having to meet the 60-vote threshold to cut off debate. Republicans will now have to keep their entire conference together and pick up nine Democrats to pass any legislation.
Brat, who calls this bill “a Christmas tree on steroids,” is getting some blowback from critics who want to know why he is so upset at a bill boosting federal spending by $400 billion when he just voted in favor of a tax bill that adds $1.5 trillion to the debt over 10 years.
Brat says the explanation is simple.
“I did my Ph.d on economic growth and you’ve got to compete with the mainstream media that doesn’t know anything about economics. All you need is an additional 0.75 percent economic growth to pay for our tax cut,
So when you put together the regulatory relief we have and the tax cut bill itself. The bill itself won’t pay for all of it, but the economy is more than compensating for it. We’re only at one-and-a-half or two (percent growth), so if you get to 2.75 you’ve paid for it and the Fed of Atlanta has us growing at 5.4 next quarter,” said Brat.
He says this line of attack is proof positive that liberals are clueless on fiscal policy.
“The tax cut does pay or itself but government spending does not pay for itself. That’s Econ 101 and unfortunately I don’t think the Democrats took the class,” said Brat.
Space X Success, Big Spending Republicans, Pelosi on Race & Immigration
David French of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America pause to cheer the Falcon Heavy rocket launch by Space X this week and David hopes it sparks more aspirational innovation that our nation so sorely needs. They also grimace as Republican majorities are preparing to jack up spending significantly over the next couple of years, even though some positive elements are included in the budget bill. And they sigh as Nancy Pelosi uses part of her marathon floor speech on immigration policy to say her young grandson blew out his birthday candles and wished he could look like his friend from Guatemala.
Kurtz Talks Media vs. Trump
Media critic Howard Kurtz says the mainstream media are in grave danger of irreparably damaging their credibility by so blatantly and viscerally attacking President Trump on a daily basis, and he says those reporters are actually doing the president they loathe a huge political favor.
Kurtz is a longtime media analyst and columnist. He hosts “Media Buzz” on the Fox News Channel and is the author of the new book, “Media Madness: Donald Trump, the Press, and the War over the Truth.”
Kurtz says mainstream journalists effectively declared war on Trump from the moment his campaign started in 2015.
“There was something about Donald Trump that just gets under their skin. First, they just wrote him off. He was a clown. He was a sideshow. He was never going to win the nomination, and of course he wasn’t going to win the election,” said Kurtz.
Since getting elected, the media have only intensified the negative coverage.
“Many journalists try to be fair but the overwhelming tone from most news organizations and many journalists is negative to the point that it’s almost a tsunami of negative coverage. I think there’s something cultural there, there’s something visceral, there’s something about Donald Trump that just has made them change the standards they used in the past,” said Kurtz.
Kurtz also points out that this media wear goes in both directions, with Trump frequently blasting what he considers “fake news,” sometimes mentioning reporters by name. Kurtz believes Trump “punches down” against the media too often and that some rhetoric goes too far but he says Trump’s frustration with the coverage of his presidency is understandable.
“I didn’t agree with Steve Bannon when he said the press was the opposition party, but sometimes we do a pretty good imitation. It’s not just opposing the policies. It’s all the personal stuff, attacking his family. There’s a lot in the book about all the horrible unfair press she gets because some social moderates and liberals think she should change her dad’s mind on every single subject,” said Kurtz.
And he says the onslaught often devolves into petty matters.
“Trump cheats at golf. Trump had two scoops of ice cream. Trump eats pizza with a fork. It’s just relentless, and it’s fueled by celebrities that also say very harsh things about him,” said Kurtz.
In the book, Kurtz is clearly pained by journalists shedding all pretense of objectivity and seeing it as their duty to combat the president and his administration.
“But the mainstream media, subconsciously at first, have lurched into the opposition camp, are appealing to an anti-Trump base of viewers and readers, failing to grasp how deeply they are distrusted by a wide swath of the country,” wrote Kurtz.
“I am increasingly troubled by how many of my colleagues have decided to abandon any semblance of fairness out of a conviction that they must save the country from Trump,” he added.
Kurtz then details the impact this incessant hostility against Trump is having on journalism as a whole.
“My greatest fear is that organized journalism has badly lost its way in the Trump era and may never fully recover. Even if the Trump presidency crashes and burns – in which case the press will claim vindication – the scars of distrust might never heal,” writes Kurtz.
In our interview, Kurtz expanded on those concerns.
“I hope I make the case in this book that there’s a real imbalance among some journalists who just think it’s their mission to stop Donald Trump from what he’s doing and maybe to knock him out of office. I think the damage is very real, really troubling, and it’s not good for he country,” said Kurtz.
However, the great irony, says Kurtz, is that this perpetual media venom over every action Trump takes only helps the president.
“It enables him to dominate and drive the news agenda every day. Also, many of his supporters out there in the country not only have more sympathy for the guy they see as their champion when he gets overwhelmingly negative coverage, but they also believe the elite media in New York, D.C., L.A. and so forth, look down on them and view them condescendingly. There are examples in the book of how that’s pretty true,” said Kurtz.
Trump often has a strategy to his media battles, rather than just shooting from the hip or the lip as his critics conclude. In June 2017, Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski ridiculed Trump on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” including jokes about his small hands. Trump fired back on Twitter.
“I heard poorly rated @Morning_Joe speaks badly of me (don’t watch anymore). Then how come low I.Q. Crazy Mika, along with Psycho Joe, came to Mar-a-Lago 3 nights in a row around New Year’s Eve, and insisted on joining me. She was bleeding badly from a face-lift. I said no!” tweeted Trump.
While the media reacted in horror and others found it unbecoming of a president, this passage from Kurtz’s book reveals that Trump accomplished his real goal.
“Trump asked Anthony Scaramucci what he thought of the tweets against Mika and Joe: ‘I know what you’re going to say – unpresidential. Then what?’
“I don’t think you needed to go there,” Scaramucci said.
“‘Is Korea off the TV?’ Trump asked. Yes, the Mooch replied. North Korea’s nuclear buildup had been eclipsed
“Is health care off the TV?” True, the impasse over the Senate bill had faded.
“Sounds good to me,” said Trump.
The investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 elections dominates mainstream media coverage. Kurtz says some developments warrant major coverage but most do not.
“It’s a perfectly legitimate story. There’s a special counsel. There have been indictments and guilty pleas, but every incremental development gets hyped like it’s the next Watergate,” said Kurtz.
He says in the media rush to convict Trump of heinous crimes, they are failing to corroborate critical accusations and losing credibility in the process.
I think there’s too law a bar and I think there’s too much of a trigger finger when it comes to this president. CNN had three high-profile mistakes involving the president last year. One of them was about Anthony Scaramucci, who later became communications director for about 10 minutes, and three journalists got fired over that,” said Kurtz.
CNN also reported that Trump and his son, Donald Trump, Jr., received copies of Wikileaks releases of hacked emails before they went public. That was also not true. ABC News suspended reporter Brian Ross for stating that Trump campaign officials met with Russian officials, when the meeting actually happened during the transition period.
However, Kurtz asserts that Trump operates a bit recklessly as well.
“There’s a term that some of his advisers have coined called ‘defiance disorder.’ What that means is they all get together and say, ‘Sir, you can’t do this. Don’t do this. It’ll be political suicide, don’t do it,’ he does it anyway because he’s Donald Trump and nobody tells him what to do,” said Kurtz.
Kurtz also says Trump’s constant blasting of the media could wear thin on his marginal supporters.
“I think it really excites the people who really like this president and think they’re viewed with disdain by the elite media, but I don’t think it helps him expand his base beyond that 38-40 percent that are very loyal to Donald Trump,” said Kurtz.
But long term, Kurtz says the the media is doing themselves the greatest damage. He says the initial results of higher ratings for MSNBC and CNN and higher digital subscriptions for the New York Times show the open hostility is paying off in the short term. So he expects the negative barrage to continue.
“I don’t see any daylight there. I don’t think it’s good for the country. I think there’s damage on both sides, but I particularly worry about my profession, which I love,” said Kurtz. “There’s going to come a day when Donald Trump is no longer in the White House, but I think it’s going to be hard for us to get much of this credibility back,” said Kurtz.
Clinton Crony Looms Large, Trump Embraces Shutdown, Parades & Priorities
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America relish enjoy watching the credibility of the Steele dossier implode even further now that disreputable Clinton fixer Sid Blumenthal is being implicated for feeding information to Steele. They also shake their heads as President Trump says he would love a government shutdown unless he gets his way on border security just weeks after Republicans successfully convinced Americans that funding the government should not be contingent upon passing an immigration bill. And they have no problem honoring the U.S. military with a parade as President Trump wants to do, but Jim says there are more pressing national security concerns, including long-term funding and pay raises.
Why is the U.S. Still Spending at Obama Levels?
As Congress approaches yet another government funding deadline, the U.S. government is still spending taxpayer dollars at Obama-era levels since lawmakers continue to kick the fiscal can down the road in perpetuity, and one leading economist says that inaction is triggering the return of trillion-dollar deficits that future generations will have to pay.
Vance Ginn is senior economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, where he also directs the foundation’s Center for American Prosperity. Ginn also shared his insights on recent stock market volatility and what it means for the nation’s overall economic health.
On Feb. 8, the short-term continuing resolution approved last month will expire, triggering another partial government shutdown unless another funding bill is approved. Right now, Democrats and President Trump are drawing competing lines in the sand over immigration policy.
As a result, no one is advocating actual changes in spending for the various department and obligations of the government. In essence, the U.S. is still operating at Obama-era spending levels more than a year into the Trump administration.
Congress and Trump have repeatedly avoided dealing with the issue by passing and signing continuing resolutions in April, September, December, and January. And there is no indication the next bill will be any different.
“What it seems like they’re doing is trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. That’s the definition of insanity and that’s what we continue to have in D.C,” said Ginn.
“Congress hasn’t taken the opportunity here – and the multiple congresses before this – to restrain the growth of spending over time,” said Ginn, and he says political considerations are behind the failure to rein in spending.
And while Democrats are doing their best to gum up Republican efforts to trim the federal budget, Ginn says the bottom line is Republicans know cutting spending comes with political consequences, so they’re reluctant to do it.
“When you’re looking at the next election cycle, you want to get re-elected. So it makes it very difficult to make those tough choices to cut spending for interest groups that are there often with their hands out,” said Ginn.
Recently, Treasury Department officials announced deficits for Fiscal Year 2018 could approach $1 trillion. Most reaction has been quick to blame the recently approved tax cuts. Ginn says that is one factor but not the primary factor.
“The driver of deficits and debt is spending. We don’t have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem. We’ve got to get the spending under control as quickly as possible. This would be a great opportunity to do that,” said Ginn.
And he says deficits will continue to bury us until the big ticket items are dealt with.
“The president has put out some good ideas like rolling back some of the funds going to the EPA and some other areas, but we really have to have congressional action. This isn’t just going to take cuts to spending. At some point, it’s going to have to be reforms to entitlement programs to really bend the cost curve so we don’t have massive deficits and debt year after year after year,” said Ginn.
Ginn says every year that lawmakers dither on spending adds another pile to the bill facing our children and grandchildren.
“That means future generations are going to have to pay more in taxes. Currently the national debt is around $21 trillion. (This years projected deficit) would push it up to $22 trillion or $23 trillion. If you add in unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, we’re over $100 trillion in debt,” said Ginn.
Ginn says some states are modeling fiscal responsibility and that Congress could take a lesson from his state of Texas.
“When you look at the Texas model of low taxes, relatively less government spending and sensible regulation, what we’ve been able to do in Texas is pass conservative budgets that don’t increase by more than population growth plus inflation. Actually it’s been less than that.
“It would be great to see the day where Congress can do that. And that would help it to live within taxpayers’ means over time,” said Ginn.
Meanwhile, the past several days on Wall Street have investors reaching for the antacid. Before Tuesday’s gains, the markets saw the biggest losing streak in about two years. Ginn says the negative numbers approached the range of a typical correction, but figuring out why takes some work.
“Eighty percent of businesses have come in above expectations for earnings in the fourth quarter, so you would expect greater increases in the stock market as well. But there’s also anticipation of faster economic growth and higher inflation, and some of those things are starting to contribute to an increase in interest rates, which slows economic growth and reduces the money supply in circulation,” said Ginn.
But with the Federal Reserve edging interest rates up recently, why is inflation becoming a problem? Ginn sees two reasons.
“Part of that is from the economic growth potential from the tax cuts that were passed and people are already starting to see an increase in their pay. As they see an increase in pay, they like to spend more and that increases demand. Without the increase in supply – which I think we will see from increased production from businesses – that would increase inflation,” said Ginn.
But there’s another, very different reason inflation concerns are mounting.
“The Federal Reserve has increased the money supply quite dramatically over the last decade, from quantitative easing and everything else. So you’re seeing inflationary pressures from that monetary factor as well,” said Ginn.
The bottom line though, says Ginn, is that Americans should have confidence in the economy going forward.
“The fundamentals are strong. The last three quarters of last year averaged three percent growth. That’s the long-term growth rate of our economy over the last 100 years,” said Ginn, noting the number is significantly better than during the Obama years.