• Skip to content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Home
  • About

Radio America Online News Bureau

majority

Midterm Preview and Predictions

November 7, 2022 by GregC

Listen to “Midterm Preview and Predictions” on Spreaker.

Join Jim and Greg as they offer their final predictions for control of the House and Senate and the winners of tight races for Senate and governor. Will there really be a big red wave across the country, or will Democrats be able to win some of those tight Senate races? We’ll tell you what we hope will happen and what we think will happen. But the most important thing is for you to make sure you vote!

Please visit our great sponsors:

Moink Box
https://moinkbox.com/martini
Get 1-year of the best filet mignon you’ll ever taste for a limited time.

Share

Filed Under: congress, Economy, Elections, History, Humor, Journalism, News & Politics Tagged With: 3MartiniLunch, Abrams, Crist, DeSantis, Fetterman, governors, Hochul, house, Kelly, majority, Masters, midterms, Oz, Senate, upsets, Zeldin

Anger Gives Dems Edge in Midterms

July 24, 2018 by GregC

http://dateline.radioamerica.org/podcast/7-24-kondik-blog.mp3

For the first time in the 2018 political season, one of the nation’s leading political forecasters is predicting Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives following the midterm elections.

On Tuesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, led by University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, moved 17 House races more favorable to Democrats.  The report also shows 33 of 36 seats labeled as toss-ups are currently held by Republicans.  Seven other GOP-held seats are considered even more imperiled.

In contrast, only two seats held by Democrats are considered toss-ups, as is one member vs. member race in Pennsylvania.  One seat held by Democrats is likely to flip to the GOP.  Democrats need a net gain of 23 House seats to reclaim the majority.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik says the enthusiasm in midterm election years is almost always against the party of the president.  And with President Trump serving as a lightning rod for the left, the passion among Democrats is even higher.

“The Republicans had this advantage in 2010 and 2014 and now the Democrats generally do in terms of asking people how enthusiastic they are to vote,” said Kondik.  “For voters, anger can be a great motivator and the angrier party, I think right now, is the Democrats.”

Even though Trump is not on the ballot, Democrats are looking for any chance to express their disapproval.  Kondik says last year’s Virginia governor’s race proved Democrats cared much more about hurting Trump than supporting Democrats on the ballot.

“Reporters were asking voters about Ralph Northam, the eventual Democratic winner and of course now the governor.  They didn’t seem to know a whole lot about him, but they did seem to know they were casting a vote against President Trump.  I think that’s what you might see in November,” said Kondik.

Republicans are also running against history.  Kondik says American history shows midterm elections are almost always good for the party out of power.

“Going back to the Civil War, there have been 39 midterms.  The president’s party has lost ground in the House in 36 of those, and the average seat loss is 33 seats.  The Democrats need to net 23 seats.  So it would not be historically odd for Democrats to win the House,” said Kondik.

But despite those built-in advantages for Democrats, Kondik says no one should count the Republicans out.

“I don’t think it’s a slam dunk for the Democrats by any means.  It’s also quite possible the race for the House could come down to a few seats here or there,” said Kondik, indicating Democrats could make major gains but still wind up in the minority.

Kondik expects Republicans to try matching the intensity of Democrats by firing up their own base.  Part of that may be based on issues like immigration, on which some Democrats have advocated abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

However, just like Democrats plan to demonize Trump, he suspects Republicans will rally their voters over fears of who would be running the House of Representatives if Democrats take control.

“They’re also raising the specter of Nancy Pelosi being the House Speaker again.  Many Democratic candidates have actually disavowed Pelosi but Republicans still see her as a very useful foil,” said Kondik.

Gauging 435 House races is a bit tricky since polling can be scarce in a lot of contests.  Many seats are considered safe for one party and the battle lines are drawn over a few dozen swing districts.

“The national party committees are doing polling here and there but even they don’t have perfect knowledge about these districts.  A lot of [predicting races] is based on the history of the district, our sort of subjective view of the quality of the candidates, past performance, and demographics.  You just try to do the best you can,” said Kondik.

“As we’ve seen in the past, even polls on the statewide level are not always correct and so there’s a significant amount of projection and guesswork that goes into it,” he added.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball will revise its projections on House, Senate, and governor’s races before locking in predictions just before Election Day, Nov. 6.

Share

Filed Under: News & Politics, Podcasts Tagged With: 2018 midterms, democrats, House of Representatives, majority, news, Republicans

Ready to Replace Reid

October 25, 2016 by GregC

http://dateline.radioamerica.org/podcast/10-25-heck-blog.mp3

Senate Republicans are playing a lot of defense in the 2016 election cycle, but their brightest hope for winning a seat held by Democrats not only buoys GOP hopes for keeping a majority but has the party on the brink of capturing the seat held by retiring Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.

Reid, D-Nevada, is stepping down after 30 years in the Senate.  The battle for his seat is a very close contest between GOP Rep. Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the former attorney general of Nevada.

Heck, who is also a physician and Army reservist, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010.  He says in this chaotic election season, keeping the U.S. Senate in Republican hands ought to be a major priority.

“The most critical issue is to ensure we have a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate, regardless of who’s in the White House.  We want to make sure there’s a system of checks and balances.  We want to make sure that we facilitate good ideas, block bad ideas and, of course, make sure that we are running the confirmation hearings for the next Supreme Court justices,” said Heck.

Heck was the the party’s top choice to seek the open Senate seat.  For much of the general election season, he enjoyed a small but steady lead over Cortex Masto.  In the past couple of weeks, however, Masto has edged ahead although the race is easily within the margin of error.

Heck says Nevada is a tough state for Republicans but he is vigorously pursuing every vote.

“It’s the demographics of our state.  The population has changed significantly.  Nevada, which had historically been a red state, is now really a blue state.  There’s an 88,000 Democrat voter edge in our state, a growing Latino population.  So it makes it that much harder to get out and talk to folks and earn their votes, but that’s exactly what we’re doing,” said Heck.

“We’ve done that over the last 18 months.  I’m the only candidate in this race that has held public events in all 17 counties, making sure that people all across the state have the opportunity to learn about who I am, where I am on the issues, and why I want to be their next U.S. senator,” said Heck.

The congressman says four issues come up most with voters: jobs and the economy, national security, health care, and education.  Heck says he has direct experience in all those areas that can improve the lives of Nevadans and all Americans, starting with the economy.

“I owned my own company.  I had a business.  I know what it’s like to make a payroll, to actually hire folks and put people to work.  I know what the impact is of every regulation that’s passed by a state, local, or federal government and what it does to a small business owner,” said Heck.

On national security, he says his time in the U.S. Army prepares him very well to face the challenges confronting our nation.

“I’ve served in uniform for 26 years.  I continue to serve in the Army Reserve.  I’ve had the honor to command some of the finest men and women this country has to offer, three tours of duty overseas.  I know what it takes to keep our country safe,” said Heck.

According to his website, Heck directed emergency services and the aeromedical evacuation section of a combat support hospital in Al-Anbar province during his time in Iraq.  He says he is acutely aware of America’s health care needs as well.

“I’m a practicing physician.  I’ve worked in inner city hospital emergency departments for over 20 years.  If you ever want to see what works and what doesn’t work, come spend some time in an inner city hospital emergency department,” said Heck.

He is also the parent of three children who have gone through the public school and public universities in Nevada.  He says that gives him the same insights as other Nevada parents.

“My opponent has no real world experience in any of those issues,” he said.

On the other hand, Heck says people know they’ll just get more of the same with Cortez Masto.

“She is Harry Reid’s hand-picked candidate, so we would expect her to continue down the same path of failed policies that Harry Reid has championed over the last decade, certainly over the last eight years in aiding and abetting the president, and one of the reasons we still have a stagnant economic recovery with sluggish economic growth, stagnant wages, a failed foreign policy that has caused our allies to no longer trust us and our adversaries to no longer fear us,” said Heck.

“She came out in support of the Iran nuclear deal, which certainly does nothing to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.  She did so in a quid pro quo, after Harry Reid and the president conducted a fundraiser for her here in Nevada,” said Heck.

Heck is also committed to protecting land rights for ranchers and other family businesses in Nevada.  He vows to fight against protected federal status for the sage grouse and against the Waters of the United States, or WOTUS, Rule.

“A dry irrigation ditch on a farm, once it has some water in it, would be considered a navigable waterway, subject to all the regulatory requirements of the Clean Waters Act.  That’s going to have a significant impact,” said Heck,

The federal government owns about 87 percent of all the land in Nevada.  Heck wants to see the federal government relinquish some of that back to the state and locales.  He says doing that, while protecting treasured parks and forests, would allow the state to bring in more property tax revenue and use that to improve Nevada’s lagging schools.

Heck says his six years in Washington have proven he can get things done.  He says he has built relationships on both sides of Capitol Hill that will pave the way for positive change.  He says his track record in the House proves that he can things done, even with President Obama in the White House.

“I’ve had bills that address veterans’ homelessness, bills that have addressed the victims of human trafficking, legislation that actually creates good-paying jobs in southern Nevada by transferring an old abandoned mine site that’s owned by the federal government to a local redevelopment authority so that it can be remediated, reclaimed and developed at no cost to the taxpayer, and supporting our men and women in uniform which is critical to our national security,” said Heck.

Republicans currently hold a 54-46 majority in Senate.  Democrats need to flip four Republican seats to retake the majority if Hillary Clinton wins the presidential race.  They would need to win five GOP  seats five if Donald Trump wins.

Standard Podcast [ 9:39 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
Share

Filed Under: News & Politics, Podcasts Tagged With: Cortez, Heck, issues, majority, Masto, Nevada, news, reid, Senate

Primary Sidebar

Recent

  • Dems Sour on Abrams, China & Marijuana, Dem Demeans School Parents
  • Russia & China Grow Closer, Mexican President’s Accusations, Trump Legal Drama
  • McCarthy’s Energy Focus, Marianne’s Temper, Barney Frank Gets A Pass
  • Biden’s Weak Nominee, Tons of Missing Uranium, Emhoff’s Asinine Analogy
  • New Texas Border Battle, Russia Targets U.S. Drone, Sister City Scam

Archives

  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • September 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • September 2009
  • August 2009
  • July 2009
  • June 2009
  • May 2009
  • April 2009
  • March 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2008
  • September 2008
  • August 2008
  • July 2008

Copyright © 2023 · News Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in