Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America react to liberal Democrat Doug Jones winning a Senate seat over Republican Roy Moore in Alabama but see a silver lining in that it will be tougher for Democrats to link Moore to every GOP candidate in 2018. They also see some troubling parallels between 2017 election results and the ones in 2009 and 2010, suggesting Republicans may be on the brink of a Democratic tide similar to the Tea Party wave of 2010. They roll their eyes as Roy Moore refuses to concede the Senate race despite trailing by more than 20,000 votes, but Greg and Jim also get an idea from the Alabama Senate race that could boost the Senate GOP and solve Jim’s NFL woes at the same time.
Senate
Tax Cut Momentum, Kim’s Ominous Missile, NBC Fires Lauer
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America are very cautiously optimistic about tax reform getting done after the Senate Budget Committee approved the Senate bill and several of the likely holdouts now seem ready to pass it. They’re also concerned following the latest North Korean missile test, which seems to indicate the communist regime could hit the U.S. mainland with a nuclear-armed ICBM. And they react to NBC firing longtime “Today” host Matt Lauer over sexually inappropriate actions.
FBI Informant Cleared to Testify, Sandy Hook Shooter Warnings, Kid Rock Bails
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America enjoy a late lunch today as they cheer the Justice Department for allowing the FBI informant to testify about his knowledge of a massive Russian bribery scheme to influence U.S. nuclear policy. They’re also exasperated as FBI files show people warned authorities about the Sandy Hook shooter’s fascination with mass killings and pedophilia and his specific statements about killing his mother and students. And they react to Kid Rock announcing he is not running for Senate and never had any intention of doing so, but Him explains why he thinks that explanation is bogus.
Dossier Twist Points to Dems, Jeff Flakes Out, Fact Check Flop
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America discuss the Washington Post revelation that the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee provided some of the funding for the infamous and largely discredited Trump dossier that involved significant collaboration with officials in Russia, and they shake their heads as Democrats insist this was just simple opposition research. They’re also unmoved by Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake’s denunciation of President Trump or Flake’s decision to fight back by retiring from the Senate, when it’s obvious the real reason he ended his campaign was because he can’t win. And they get a kick out of the Washington Post fact checkers making a big deal out of determining that Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie was wrong by claiming there were 2,000 MS-13 gang members living in one Virginia county when the best guess of law enforcement is there are just 1,400 violent criminals from that gang roaming area streets and neighborhoods.
Trump Decertifies Iran Deal, Health of GOP Senators, Media’s Giant Blind Spot
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America welcome President Trump’s refusal to certify that Iran is honoring its part of the 2015 nuclear deal but wonder whether the deal will eventually be scrapped or be allowed to stick around. They also approach the delicate issue of aging Republicans missing considerable time in the U.S. Senate and when the right time is to decide another term is not a good idea. And they shake their heads as Chuck Todd of MSNBC rightly castigates the rise of activism cloaked as journalism but cannot see or admit that’s what his employer does on a daily basis.
Clinton & Obama Silence, Twitter Censors GOP Video, NFL Madness Gets Worse
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America give credit to the mainstream media for calling Democrats to account for their silence over the sexual assault and harassment allegations lodged against Hollywood mogul and prolific Democratic Party donor Harvey Weinstein. They also fire back at Twitter after the social media service censors a video from Tennessee GOP Senate hopeful Marsha Blackburn because her efforts to stop the sale of aborted baby body parts were considered inflammatory and likely to elicit negative reactions. And Jim and Greg sigh as the latest NFL protest chaos includes ESPN host Jemele Hill getting suspended for encouraging Dallas Cowboy fans to boycott team sponsors, Al Sharpton vowing to boycott the NFL unless Hill is reinstated, and President Trump gloating over the Hill suspension.
‘They’re Furious at Our Senators’
Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Arizona, is fully behind President Trump’s demand for full congressional funding for a border wall and both he and his constituents are exasperated with the state’s two Republican senators for offering no solutions of their to overhaul or repeal Obamacare.
Gosar is a member of the House Freedom Caucus who fended off a primary challenger backed by national party allies in 2016. He says the GOP Senate is a major disappointment, with the failure to address Obamacare as the prime example of its inability to get things done.
“What has the Senate done? They copped out on Obamacare. And to my senators (Republicans John McCain and Jeff Flake), if you didn’t like what the House put forward, where are your ideas?” said Gosar, a dentist who first ran for Congress as part of the tea party wave in 2010.
He says while politicians are posturing, people in his state are suffering from Obamacare.
“We’re catastrophically moving down this pathway where we’re seeing Americans getting a 40-90 percent increase in their premiums coming up. Obamacare is failing. There’s not enough money to fix it. We’re seeing Medicare being implemented in all the group plans, so it behooves us to be big boys and girls and have that conversation,” said Gosar.
Gosar says the anger of Arizonans towards McCain and Flake is palpable everywhere he goes.
“They’re furious at our senators. There isn’t one meeting I don’t have where people are going off on our two senators. Leadership comes at a price and that means you have to put solutions on te table. That means that ‘No’ can;t be your answer, it’s going to be what it takes to be ‘Yes,'” said Gosar.
In addition to hearing his constituents vent about their senators, he’s also hearing about their hardships created by our current health care system.
“I have represented most of the rural parts of Arizona. They’ve got a piece of paper that says they have health insurance but they can’t afford to pay the co-pays and deductibles. It’s a travesty. They see no job growth out here. They don’t see opportunity. Those were all the things they were promised,” said Gosar.
Gosar says Trump has done what we can to improve conditions but Congress needs to do the heavy lifting.
“Whether it be tax breaks, tax cuts, getting government out of the way, this president has done his fair share with the Congressional Review Act and with executive orders to streamline the regulatory process. Now Congress has got to respond. It can’t continue working in a broken, dysfunctional fashion,” said Gosar.
Dr. Kelli Ward, a former Arizona state senator, is already running against Flake in next year’s GOP primary. Ward challenged McCain last year and lost badly in the primary, leaving some conservatives to push for Gosar and other conservatives to enter the fray.
Gosar says he’s thought about but is not close to any decision.
“We’ll see. That’s as good as we can say at this point in time,” said Gosar. “We want to make sure that we’re doing the right thing at the right time for the right reason. I don’t need another title, I’ve got four titles above congressman: that’s a husband, a father, a citizen, and a doctor,” said Gosar.
Just a few days ago, President Trump held a campaign rally in Phoenix. In addition to sparring with the media and defending his response to the chaos in Charlottesville, Trump demanded Congress fund his central campaign promise of a wall along the southern border, even vowing to shut down the government to make it happen.
Gosar says no one should be surprised by Trump’s blunt tactics.
“This gentleman is not built as a politician and that’s why America voted him in. He’s a disrupter. The business as usual has got to stop. We’re $20 trillion in debt,” said Gosar.
He also says not approving the money would be a huge mistake.
“I don’t think I would cross the president and I don’t think I would cross the American people. This is something the American people want. So far the Senate has let them down in regards to promises they made on Obamacare and so I think they’re getting restless. They don’t see solutions but they see a man that’s struggling to make sure that he honors the promises that he made to those people,” said Gosar.
Gosar also asserts that the controversy over the wall is only a creation of the past decade.
“The wall was authorized over a decade ago and it was a bipartisan effort. A sovereign country has a right to defend and dictate it’s borders,” said Gosar.
So how did this become such a political lightning rod?
“It’s because the political correctness in the media has gotten into people,” he said.
Another hot-button issue is the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. He says all contracts ought to be renegotiated every few years and NAFTA has been on the books for more than two decades. He says the issues of border security and trade are very closely linked.
“I think these are all interwoven and I think the president has a good thought process about how to drag all these together to get what he believes the American people want because they voted for him. He made no qualms about border security and building the wall,” said Gosar.
Gosar also applauds Trump sending more border patrol agents and immigration judges to stem the tide of illegal entries and to adjudicate cases much more quickly. He does, however, urge the president to make more personnel nominations in the Justice Department and elsewhere to improve the effort even more.
But with Trump in a very public battle with members of his own party about blame over Obamacare and other issues, will any big ticket items on the GOP agenda actually get done when Congress returns next month?
Gosar says they have no choice.
“Winston Churchill made the famous analogy saying, ‘You can always count on Americans to do the right thing when they’ve exhausted everything else. Well, here’s our sign looking at Congress.. We’ve exhausted everything else, at least from the House. We’ve got over 200 bills over there waiting on the Senate to take a look at,” said Gosar.
While he can’t say for sure what will get done, Gosar says if one big thing can get to Trump’s desk, other major priorities will fall like dominoes.
“The atmosphere is going to be very confrontational. It’s going to be very high stakes. But once that first brick falls, a lot of this stuff is going to fall right in line,” said Gosar, who personally hopes Obamacare repeal is the first brick to fall.
“I would hope that it’s health care, because I think that sets the stage for tax breaks [and] the budget and that looks at a positive influence for the American people to move forward,” said Gosar.
Immigration Battle Awaits Congress Upon Return
Along with tax reform, the debt ceiling, spending bills, and maybe another crack at health care legislation, Congress also has the chance to address immigration policy, and a leading advocate of tougher immigration standards says compromises can be made so long as the most important elements wind up in the final bill.
Center for Immigration Reform Research Director Steven Camarota says President Trump has already improved our homeland security and positioned the country better for reform simply by enforcing the laws on the books.
“Having Trump in there, whatever else you may think of him, he’s pushing enforcement. He’s going after illegal immigrants and those who are criminal aliens. He’s trying to increase work site enforcement and get the cooperation of local law enforcement. All of that makes sense and that’s a very big deal,” said Camarota.
But he says enforcement of current laws only goes so far.
“It doesn’t do that much to address the overall issue of numbers. How many people can we assimilate? What is the absorption capacity of America’s physical infrastructure? What is the absorption capacity of schools? That’s why numbers all matter so much,” said Camarota.
“Unless we start bringing the legal numbers, which are enormous and account for three-fourth’s of all immigrants, we’re not going to deal with many of the problems the country faces stemming from immigration,” said Camarota.
Earlier this summer, President Trump introduced the RAISE Act, which most notably lower levels of legal immigration and also require immigrants to be able to support themselves financially and be proficient in English.
A quick head count of the Senate shows that bill essentially dead on arrival. In addition to most or all Democrats lining up against the legislation, several Republicans are also balking at it, including members of the 2013 Gang of Eight, such as John McCain, R-Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
But Camarota believes a good bill can still get done and he is willing to offer a major priority of Democrats as enticement.
“One of the ways it might pass is if it were part of a compromise that gave some kind of legal status to those illegal immigrants who came at young ages in return for the provisions of the RAISE Act. These are the people currently covered by the program called DACA (often called ‘Dreamers’),” said Camarota.
But Camarota was very clear about what he believes needs to be in the bill.
“Obviously, (we need) enforcement, controlling the border, going after the employers who hire people who are illegally here, and an entry-exit system that records the arrival and departure of people,” said Camarota.
“Foreigners come into the United States 200 million times or more a year on a time-limited basis. That means they have a temporary visa, a tourist, a guest worker, a foreign student. We don’t keep track of the time we’re here, so we don’t know if the time limit has been honored,” said Camarota.
Camarota would also like to see a much stricter definition of family members who can be allowed in, primarily limiting the option to spouses and dependent children.
However, he also says the benefits of immigration to the immigrant, and not just the nation, ought to considered.
“I realize that the immigrants themselves may benefit by coming here and maybe that’s something to think about. Maybe that’s why we should continue to have a reasonable pace of immigration. But it doesn’t, to my mind, justify, the enormous amount of legal immigration, nor does it justify tolerating illegal immigration,” said Camarota.
The immigration issue is a political tinder box right now. The debates over the Trump travel bans grew very intense that will likely spill over into this struggle. Camarota says Trump brings good and bad qualities into this debate.
“To his credit, Trump has at least been willing to address some of the big issues. Not to his credit, he has not done so in a careful and sensitive way and he’s contributed in that way to polarization,” said Camarota.
But he says it’s not just Trump who has to take a more sober look at this debate.
“Careful, intelligent, fact-based discourse is hard for most people and a polarized environment makes it harder,” said Camarota.
Can Tarkanian Trump Heller?
Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nevada, is seen as the most vulnerable Senate Republican in 2018 and now he may have a fight just emerge from the GOP primary thanks to a vigorous, America First challenge from businessman Danny Tarkanian.
In 2018, Republicans are defending just eight seats, while Democrats are trying to protect 25 different seats, many of them in states President Trump carried in 2016. Heller is one of those eight Republicans on the ballot next year, but his approval numbers in his home state are very low. Just 22 percent of Nevadans approved of Heller’s job performance in a left-leaning poll released August 1.
The same survey found Nevadans ready to support a generic Democrat over Heller by a 50-31 percent margin. Tarkanian sees those same numbers and says Heller’s performance in Washington, particularly on Obamacare, is a big reason for the disapproval.
“The people of Nevada are very frustrated with the representation they’ve had from Sen. Heller over the years and I think it culminated with his vote not to repeal Obamacare after he promised to,” said Tarkanian.
“They expect him to keep his word from what he promises when he campaigns when he’s trying to get elected,” said Tarkanian. “Everywhere I go in this great state of Nevada, I hear people say they’re sick and tired of politicians who promise one thing when they run for office and they do the exact opposite when they get elected.”
Defenders of Heller point out he did not help to kill the Obamacare repeal in the debate because he supported the “skinny repeal” that was eventually sunk by GOP moderates Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and John McCain.
Tarkanian is not impressed.
“The skinny repeal was a joke. It was the worst bill that was proposed out there and it didn’t do anything to lower the premiums for the hard-working middle class Americans that have seen their premiums go up like my family’s: $12,000 a year, our deductibles 500 percent (higher), our co-pay for a specialist doctor 400 percent (higher),” said Tarkanian.
“Dean Heller’s skinny repeal that he brags about that he signed, actually raises the premium another 20 percent more than it’s already going to raise. It was the worst possible bill out there,” said Tarkanian.
But Tarkanian says Heller was on the wrong side when the chance for real repeal was on the table.
“He promised he would vote to repeal Obamacare. That is what he did in 2015, when he knew that President Obama would veto it. Then in 2017, the exact same bill came before him, and he joined six other senators, who had signed for the repeal in 2015 that voted against the repeal this year, knowing President Trump would sign it. That’s what’s infuriated the people of Nevada,” said Tarkanian.
Tarkanian admits he doesn’t have a lot of political experience but notes that Heller has been in politics for 30 years. The challenger says his principles are very clear.
“I have worked in the Republican Party as a very strong advocate for conservative principles, America First principles that Donald Trump is talking about. I never wavered on that support, even though it cost me quite a bit in previous elections because I had the conviction to stand up for what I believed in,” said Tarkanian.
He is running as an enthusiastic supporter of the Trump agenda.
“We have a president who really has the courage and conviction to really try to make substantive and meaningful changes to the way D.C. operates. Some good things are happening through executive order. But for him to get his America First agenda passed, he’s going to need senators to support that agenda. And I fully support the president’s America First agenda,” said Tarkanian.
Aligning so closely with the Trump agenda could be risky in a state Trump lost in 2016 and stands at 40 percent approval. Tarkanian sees it as a matter of principle.
“It’s the right thing to do. It’s the only strategy you should look at. What’s the right thing to do? The right thing to do is to get President Trump’s America First policies passed,” said Tarkanian.
Tarkanian makes it clear he doesn’t necessarily subscribe to Trump’s political style but they do see eye to eye on policy. He says the media spend far more time on Trump’s personality, and other than Obamacare, spend hardly any time on policy.
“The only (other) time I’ve seen them attack his policy was on the travel ban. They haven’t said a single thing about the other things he’s trying to accomplish. We’re seeing stock market highs virtually daily, unemployment at a 16-year low. Border crossings are down 70 percent for illegal immigrants. ISIS is being destroyed in Iraq and Syria,” said Tarkanian.
He is also confident that a conservative can win in an increasingly blue state like Nevada. Tarkanian points out the GOP swept all the major races in 2014 and a coalition is there for him as well.
“It’s a tough state but it’s not a state that’s out of reach. There’s six percent more Democrats in the state. Twenty-three percent of the state is independent. So if you win the independents and hold you base,a good strong Republican can win,” said Tarkanian.
Tarkanian is the son of the late University of Nevada-Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, who won a national championship in four trips to the Final Four but also clashed with the NCAA for decades over alleged infractions.
Danny, who played for his father, says he was prepared for politics after watching his father get hammered in the media.
“I had the unfortunate opportunity to watch how the media crucified my father when he was coach,” said Tarkanian. “So, I’m used to seeing the criticism, and how unfair it was, and how my father handled it. I think that’s allowed me to handle it much better than almost any other person who has run for public office.”
Tarkanian has run twice for statewide office, twice for the House and once before for Senat. He lost his most recent race, a 2016, House campaign, by less than 4,000 votes.
“I’ve had some very tough and agonizing losses. I learned that you fight back from those losses. You don’t give up. You show perseverance and a never quit attitude. That’s the only way you overcome those things. I think a lot people would have thrown in the towel by now if they were in my shoes. Because of the way I was raised, that isn’t me,” said Tarkanian.
Wray Replaces Comey, Trump’s Personnel Problem, ‘Paddy Wagon’ Politics
Jim Geraghty of National Review and Greg Corombos of Radio America applaud the Senate for approving Christopher Wray as the new FBI director with virtually no drama. They also discuss Rep. Mike McCaul’s reluctance to be considered to lead the Department of Homeland Security. While many border security advocates are not fans of McCaul, Jim wonders whether Trump’s public criticisms of administration figures will convince qualified people to pass on chances to serve. And Jim and Greg react as you might expect after the author of a Washington Post opinion piece slams President Trump for his use of the term “paddy wagon” in a speech,” claiming it is a slur against the Irish that should not be part of civil discourse.